Regime switching in the dynamic relationship between the federal funds rate and innovations in nonborrowed reserves
This paper examines the dynamic relationship between changes in the funds rate and nonborrowed reserves within a reduced form framework that allows the relationship to have two distinct patterns over time. A regime switching model a la Hamilton (1989) is estimated. On average, CPI inflation has been significantly higher in the regime characterized by large and volatile changes in funds rate. Innovations in money growth are associated with a strong anticipated inflation effect in this high inflation regime, and a moderate liquidity effect in the low inflation regime. Furthermore, an identical money innovation generates a much bigger increase in the interest rate during a transition period from the low to high inflation regime than during a steady high inflation period. This accords well with economic intuition since the transition period is when the anticipated inflation effect initially gets incorporated into the interest rate. The converse also holds. That is, the liquidity effect becomes stronger when the economy leaves a high inflation regime period and enters a low inflation regime period.
|Date of creation:||1996|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 20th Street and Constitution Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20551|
Web page: http://www.federalreserve.gov/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/order.htm|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Eric M. Leeper & David B. Gordon, 1991.
"In search of the liquidity effect,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
403, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Hansen, Bruce E, 1996.
"Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified under the Null Hypothesis,"
Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 413-430, March.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "RATS programs to replicate Hansen's threshold estimation and testing results," Statistical Software Components RTZ00091, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "TAR: RATS procedure to estimate a threshold autoregression, tests for threshold effect," Statistical Software Components RTS00209, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Hansen, B.E., 1991. "Inference when a Nuisance Parameter is Not Identified Under the Null Hypothesis," RCER Working Papers 296, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Steven Strongin, 1992. "The identification of monetary policy disturbances: explaining the liquidity puzzle," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 92-27, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Adrian R. Pagan & John C. Robertson, 1995.
"Resolving the liquidity effect,"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 33-54.
- Michael D. Boldin, 1992. "Using switching models to study business cycle asymmetries: 1. overview of methodology and application," Research Paper 9211, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Christian Gilles & Pamela A. Labadie & Wilbur John Coleman II., 1996.
"A model of the federal funds market,"
Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 7(2), pages 337-357.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum, 1991. "Identification and the Liquidity Effect of a Monetary Policy Shock," NBER Working Papers 3920, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- René Garcia, 1995.
"Asymptotic Null Distribution of the Likelihood Ratio Test in Markov Switching Models,"
CIRANO Working Papers
- Garcia, Rene, 1998. "Asymptotic Null Distribution of the Likelihood Ratio Test in Markov Switching Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(3), pages 763-788, August.
- Daniel L. Thornton, 1988. "The effect of monetary policy on short-term interest rates," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 53-72.
- Reichenstein, William, 1987. "The Impact of Money on Short-term Interest Rates," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 25(1), pages 67-82, January.
- Chan Huh, 1995. "Regime switching in the dynamic relationship between the federal funds rate and nonborrowed reserves," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 95-11, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Fuerst, Timothy S., 1992. "Liquidity, loanable funds, and real activity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 3-24, February.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:536. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Franz Osorio)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.