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Evaluación de la contribución económica del sector de hidrocarburos colombiano frente a diversos escenarios de producción

Author

Listed:
  • Leonardo Villar
  • Felipe Castro
  • David Forero
  • Juan Mauricio Ramírez

Abstract

En Colombia, el sector de hidrocarburos ha mostrado un crecimiento importante en los últimos anos convirtiéndose en una actividad determinante para la economía nacional. Este documento cuantifica la contribución económica del sector en los últimos diez anos y realiza un análisis prospectivo de su impacto a partir de diferentes escenarios de producción de petróleo y gas. Los efectos macroeconómicos del sector de hidrocarburos se estiman utilizando el Modelo de Equilibrio General Computable de Fedesarrollo. Además se realiza un análisis de los impactos del sector en términos de encadenamientos productivos y la distribución de regalías. Por último, el documento plantea una serie de recomendaciones de política orientadas a fortalecer el sector y mitigar los efectos ante una eventual caida en la producción.

Suggested Citation

  • Leonardo Villar & Felipe Castro & David Forero & Juan Mauricio Ramírez, 2014. "Evaluación de la contribución económica del sector de hidrocarburos colombiano frente a diversos escenarios de producción," Informes de Investigación 12501, Fedesarrollo.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000124:012501
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/11445/1688
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mauricio Olivera & Luis Alberto Zuleta & Tatiana L. Aguilar & Andrés F. Osorio, 2011. "Impacto del sector de servicios petroleros en la economía Colombiana," Cuadernos de Fedesarrollo 9269, Fedesarrollo.
    2. James L. Smith, 2009. "World Oil: Market or Mayhem?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(3), pages 145-164, Summer.
    3. Robert K. Kaufmann, Stephane Dees, Pavlos Karadeloglou and Marcelo Sanchez, 2004. "Does OPEC Matter? An Econometric Analysis of Oil Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 67-90.
    4. James D. Hamilton, 2011. "Historical Oil Shocks," NBER Working Papers 16790, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Jan Bentzen, 2007. "Does OPEC influence crude oil prices? Testing for co-movements and causality between regional crude oil prices," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(11), pages 1375-1385.
    6. López, Enrique & Montes, Enrique & Garavito-Acosta, Aarón Levi & Collazos-Gaitán, María Mercedes, 2013. "La economía petrolera en Colombia," Chapters, in: Rincón-Castro, Hernán & Velasco, Andrés M. (ed.), Flujos de capitales, choques externos y respuestas de política en países emergentes, chapter 9, pages 337-406, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    7. Norberto Rojas & David Forero, 2011. "Bonanza petrolera: ¿cómo aprovecharla?," Informes de Investigación 10253, Fedesarrollo.
    8. Mauricio Reina & Sandra Oviedo & Jonathan Moreno, 2014. "Importancia económica del sector automotor en Colombia," Informes de Investigación 12657, Fedesarrollo.
    9. Enrique López & Enrique Montes & Aarón Garavito & María Mercedes Collazos, 2012. "La economía petrolera en Colombia Marco legal - contractual y sus principales efectos sobre la actividad económica del país (parte I)," Borradores de Economia 692, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Juan Mauricio Ramírez & Juan Guillermo Bedoya, 2014. "Regalías directas por hidrocarburos y esfuerzo fiscal municipal en Colombia," Coyuntura Económica, Fedesarrollo, December.
    2. Karelys Guzmán-Finol & Ana María Estrada-Jabela, 2016. "Los gobiernos departamentales y la inversión de regalías en Colombia: Un análisis descriptivo, 2012 - 2015," Revista Economía y Región, Universidad Tecnológica de Bolívar, vol. 10(1), pages 119-163, June.
    3. Karelys Guzmán-Finol & Ana María Estrada-Jabela, 2016. "Los gobiernos departamentales y la inversión de regalías en Colombia," Documentos de trabajo sobre Economía Regional y Urbana 236, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Hidrocarburos; Modelos de Equilibrio General Computable; Encadenamientos Productivos; RegalíasColombia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • L71 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction - - - Mining, Extraction, and Refining: Hydrocarbon Fuels
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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