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Closer to One Great Pool? Evidence from Structural Breaks in Oil Price Differentials

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  • Michael D. Plante
  • Grant Strickler

Abstract

We show that the oil market has become closer to "one great pool," in the sense that price differentials between crude oils of different qualities have generally become smaller over time. We document, in particular, that many of these quality-related differentials experienced a major structural break in or around 2008, after which there was a marked reduction in their means and, in many cases, volatilities. Several factors explain these shifts, including a growing ability of the global refinery sector to process lower-quality crude oil and the U.S. shale boom, which has unexpectedly boosted the supply of high-quality crude oil. Differentials between crude oils of similar quality in general did not experience breaks in or around 2008, although we do find evidence of breaks at other times. We also show that these structural breaks can affect tests of stationarity for many price differentials.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael D. Plante & Grant Strickler, 2019. "Closer to One Great Pool? Evidence from Structural Breaks in Oil Price Differentials," Working Papers 1901, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:feddwp:1901
    DOI: 10.24149/wp1901
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    Cited by:

    1. Ioannis Chatziantoniou & David Gabauer & Rangan Gupta, 2021. "Integration and Risk Transmission in the Market for Crude Oil: A Time-Varying Parameter Frequency Connectedness Approach," Working Papers 202147, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    2. Niyati Bhanja & Samia Nasreen & Arif Billah Dar & Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2022. "Connectedness in International Crude Oil Markets," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 59(1), pages 227-262, January.
    3. Robert Ialenti, 2021. "Rising US LNG Exports and Global Natural Gas Price Convergence," Discussion Papers 2021-14, Bank of Canada.
    4. Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Gabauer, David & Gupta, Rangan, 2023. "Integration and risk transmission in the market for crude oil: New evidence from a time-varying parameter frequency connectedness approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    5. Jian Yang & Yinggang Zhou, 2020. "Return and volatility transmission between China's and international crude oil futures markets: A first look," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(6), pages 860-884, June.

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    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General

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