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Integration and Risk Transmission in the Market for Crude Oil: A Time-Varying Parameter Frequency Connectedness Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Ioannis Chatziantoniou

    (Economics and Finance Subject Group, University of Portsmouth, Portsmouth Business School, Portland Street, Portsmouth, PO1 3DE, United Kingdom)

  • David Gabauer

    (Data Analysis Systems, Software Competence Center Hagenberg, Hagenberg, Austria)

  • Rangan Gupta

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa)

Abstract

In this study, we investigate dynamic integration and risk transmission among a set of six well-established crude oil markets by combining frequency connectedness (Barunik and Krehlik, 2018) with the time-varying parameter connectedness approach (Antonakakis et al., 2020). Our study covers the period from May 1996 to December 2020 and focuses on crude oil price volatility. We measure connectedness for both a high and a low-frequency band. Findings are suggestive of relatively strong co-movements over time. For the most part of the sample period, connectedness occurs in the short-run; nonetheless, starting approximately in 2010, long-run connectedness gains much prominence until at least the end of 2015. Long-run connectedness is also prevalent at the beginning of 2020 caused by the COVID pandemic. We opine that periods of increased long-run connectedness relate to deeper changes in the market for crude oil that bring about new dynamics and associations within the specific network.

Suggested Citation

  • Ioannis Chatziantoniou & David Gabauer & Rangan Gupta, 2021. "Integration and Risk Transmission in the Market for Crude Oil: A Time-Varying Parameter Frequency Connectedness Approach," Working Papers 202147, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:202147
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    World crude oil market; TVP-VAR; volatility spillovers; frequency connectedness;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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