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Taxation, regulation and the information efficiency of the Berlin stock exchange, 1892–1913

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  • GELMAN, SERGEY
  • BURHOP, CARSTEN

Abstract

In this article, we investigate the information efficiency of the Berlin stock exchange using returns of a new daily stock-market index for the years 1892–1913. We focus on the impact of the 1896 stock exchange law and of the increases of the stock-market turnover tax in 1894 and 1900 on information efficiency. We fit an ARMA(0,1)-GARCH(1,1) model to the data and search for structural breaks. This approach yields no convincing evidence that the tax increases had a negative influence on weak information efficiency. In addition, the restriction of derivative trading by the 1896 stock exchange law did not result in measurable changes in the autocorrelation of daily returns.

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  • Gelman, Sergey & Burhop, Carsten, 2008. "Taxation, regulation and the information efficiency of the Berlin stock exchange, 1892–1913," European Review of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(1), pages 39-66, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:ereveh:v:12:y:2008:i:01:p:39-66_00
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    3. Turner, John D., 2014. "Financial history and financial economics," QUCEH Working Paper Series 14-03, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's University Centre for Economic History.
    4. Sebastian A.J. Keibek, 2016. "Using probate data to determine historical male occupational structures," Working Papers 26, Department of Economic and Social History at the University of Cambridge, revised 21 Mar 2017.
    5. Alexander Opitz, 2018. "“Comrades, Let's March!”.† The Revolution of 1905 and its impact on financial markets," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 22(1), pages 28-52.
    6. David Chambers & Carsten Burhop & Brian Cheffins, 2016. "The Rise and Fall of the German Stock Market, 1870-1938," Working Papers 25, Department of Economic and Social History at the University of Cambridge, revised 21 Sep 2016.
    7. Carsten Burhop, 2011. "The Underpricing of Initial Public Offerings at the Berlin Stock Exchange, 1870–96," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 12(1), pages 11-32, February.
    8. Buchner, Michael, 2018. "The Berlin Bourse in the London mirror: An asymmetric comparison of microstructures and the role of Germany's large banks in securities trading, c. 1860-1914," IBF Paper Series 01-18, IBF – Institut für Bank- und Finanzgeschichte / Institute for Banking and Financial History, Frankfurt am Main.
    9. Sibylle H. Lehmann, 2014. "Taking firms to the stock market: IPOs and the importance of large banks in imperial Germany, 1896–1913," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 67(1), pages 92-122, February.
    10. Carsten Burhop & Sibylle Lehmann-Hasemeyer, 2016. "The Berlin stock exchange and the geography of German stock markets in 1913," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 20(4), pages 429-451.
    11. Allen, Franklin, et al., 2010. "How Important Historically Were Financial Systems for Growth in the U.K., U.S., Germany, and Japan?," Working Papers 10-27, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
    12. Sibylle Lehmann, 2011. "Taking Firms to the Stock Market: IPOs and the Importance of Universal Banks in Imperial Germany 1896-1913," Cologne Economic History papers 9, University of Cologne, Department of Economic and Business History, revised Mar 2011.
    13. Sibylle Lehmann-Hasemeyer & Jochen Streb, 2016. "The Berlin Stock Exchange in Imperial Germany: A Market for New Technology?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(11), pages 3558-3576, November.
    14. Opitz, Alexander, 2015. "Democratic prospects in Imperial Russia: The revolution of 1905 and the political stock market," Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences 15-2015, University of Hohenheim, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences.
    15. Jens Günther, 2017. "Capital market effects around dividend announcements: an analysis of the Berlin stock exchange in 1895," Accounting History Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(3), pages 249-278, September.
    16. Sibylle Lehmann, 2010. "Explaining the performance of Initial Public Offerings in Imperial Germany, 1897-1914: the role of reputation," Working Papers 10005, Economic History Society.
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