IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/glodps/555.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

On Recessive and Expansionary Impact of Financial Development: Empirical Evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Nguena, Christian-Lambert
  • Kodila-Tedika, Oasis

Abstract

This paper mainly examines the effect of financial development on the recession, while controlling for potential recession factors. Using panel data of 129 countries spanning 1990-2010, we implemented “Locally Weighted Scatterplot Smoothing”, “Local Linear” and “Iteratively Reweighted Least Squares” regression methods along with a Sasabuchi test to verify the inverse U-shape to estimate the extreme point for the non-linear specification. We mainly found a nonlinear and thus U-shaped relationship between recession and financial development with a threshold effect of 1.1528, which validate financial development recessive and expansionary real impacts. The financial development process presents an expansionary impact for countries with financial performance less than 1.1528, and countries with financial performance above the threshold of 1.1528 present a recessionary impact of financial development. Moreover, we found that trade openness contributes to increasing recession independently to the estimation method. Thus during economic crises of recession, policymakers should hold-on regional integration along with globalization doctrines. On the contrary, fuels for South Asia (SASIA) and Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) countries and financial openness for sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries impact negatively recessions; countries who manage their oil production in a good manner will also reduce the probability and impact of recessions, and appear to have an expansionary real impact only. Thus, to fight against recession, SASIA and LAC countries should well manage oil production and usage while SSA countries may manage their financial openness. Verifying the robustness permit us to confirm the baseline and extended model specification findings in terms of coefficients sign and significance; furthermore, to highlight SSA, SASIA and LAC as the order of continental/regional importance in increasing magnitude. Finally, the semiparametric regression shows that the results of the parametric part converge with the previous results in general, and bear out with illustration the functional form of the nonlinear relation between recession and financial development.

Suggested Citation

  • Nguena, Christian-Lambert & Kodila-Tedika, Oasis, 2020. "On Recessive and Expansionary Impact of Financial Development: Empirical Evidence," GLO Discussion Paper Series 555, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:glodps:555
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/217493/1/GLO-DP-0555.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Adonis Yatchew & Len Bos, 1997. "Nonparametric Least Squares Regression and Testing in Economic Models," Working Papers yatchew-99-01, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    2. Lessmann, Christian, 2014. "Spatial inequality and development — Is there an inverted-U relationship?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 35-51.
    3. Wen-jen Hsieh, 2011. "The Global Economic Recession and Industrial Structure : Evidence from Four Asian Dragons," Trade Working Papers 23221, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    4. John G. Fernald, 2015. "Productivity and Potential Output before, during, and after the Great Recession," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(1), pages 1-51.
    5. Jean Arcand & Enrico Berkes & Ugo Panizza, 2015. "Too much finance?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 105-148, June.
    6. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393, Elsevier.
    7. Jo Thori Lind & Halvor Mehlum, 2010. "With or Without U? The Appropriate Test for a U‐Shaped Relationship," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 72(1), pages 109-118, February.
    8. Beachy, Ben, 2012. "A Financial Crisis Manual Causes, Consequences, and Lessons of the Financial Crisis," Working Papers 179105, Tufts University, Global Development and Environment Institute.
    9. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    10. Hsieh, Wen-jen, 2011. "The Global Economic Recession and Industrial Structure: Evidence from Four Asian Dragons," ADBI Working Papers 315, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    11. Liu, Weiling & Moench, Emanuel, 2016. "What predicts US recessions?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1138-1150.
    12. Ang, James B., 2013. "Are modern financial systems shaped by state antiquity?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4038-4058.
    13. Jacques Anas & Laurent Ferrara, 2004. "Detecting Cyclical Turning Points: The ABCD Approach and Two Probabilistic Indicators," Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2004(2), pages 193-225.
    14. Asli Demeirgüç-Kunt & Ross Levine (ed.), 0. "Finance and Growth," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 17119.
    15. Thorsten Beck & Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Ross Levine, 2010. "Financial Institutions and Markets across Countries and over Time: The Updated Financial Development and Structure Database," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 24(1), pages 77-92, January.
    16. Beck, Thorsten & Levine, Ross & Loayza, Norman, 2000. "Finance and the sources of growth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1-2), pages 261-300.
    17. Wen-jen Hsieh, 2011. "The Global Economic Recession and Industrial Structure : Evidence from Four Asian Dragons," Microeconomics Working Papers 23221, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    18. Robert J. Barro & José F. Ursúa, 2012. "Rare Macroeconomic Disasters," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 83-109, July.
    19. Travis J. Berge & Òscar Jordà, 2011. "Evaluating the Classification of Economic Activity into Recessions and Expansions," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 246-277, April.
    20. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Levine, Ross, 1999. "Bank-based and market-based financial systems - cross-country comparisons," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2143, The World Bank.
    21. Athanasios Petralias & Sotirios Petros & Prodromos Prodromidis, 2013. "Greece in Recession: Economic predictions, mispredictions, forecast suggestions and policy recommendations," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 7(2), pages 53-80, December.
    22. Lane, Philip & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, "undated". "External Wealth of Nations," Instructional Stata datasets for econometrics extwealth, Boston College Department of Economics.
    23. Maswana, Jean-Claude, 2010. "The Global Financial Crisis and Recession," Working Papers 15, JICA Research Institute.
    24. Ang, James B. & Kumar, Sanjesh, 2014. "Financial development and barriers to the cross-border diffusion of financial innovation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 43-56.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Christian-Lambert Nguena, Oasis Kodila-Tedika, 2023. "On recessive and expansionary impact of financial development: empirical evidence," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 20(1), pages 97-130, June.
    2. Christian-Lambert Nguena & Oasis Kodila-Tedika, 2023. "Zu rezessiven und expansiven Auswirkungen der Finanzentwicklung: empirische Beweise [On recessive and expansionary impact of financial development: empirical evidence]," Post-Print hal-04228903, HAL.
    3. Kodila-Tedika, Oasis & NGUENA, Christian L., 2017. "Recession and financial development: An empirical analysis," MPRA Paper 81527, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Oasis Kodila-Tedika & Simplice Asongu & Matthias Cinyabuguma, 2016. "Financial Development and Geographic Isolation: Global Evidence," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 16/014, African Governance and Development Institute..
    5. Samargandi, Nahla & Fidrmuc, Jan & Ghosh, Sugata, 2015. "Is the Relationship Between Financial Development and Economic Growth Monotonic? Evidence from a Sample of Middle-Income Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 66-81.
    6. Ang, James B. & Kumar, Sanjesh, 2014. "Financial development and barriers to the cross-border diffusion of financial innovation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 43-56.
    7. Oasis Kodila-Tedika & Simplice A. Asongu, 2015. "The Effect of Intelligence on Financial Development: A Cross-Country Comparison," Research Africa Network Working Papers 15/002, Research Africa Network (RAN).
    8. Kodila-Tedika, Oasis & Asongu, Simplice A. & Cinyabuguma, Matthias & Tchamyou, Vanessa S., 2017. "Financial development and prehistoric geographical isolation: global evidence," Financial History Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(3), pages 283-306, December.
    9. Thomas Grjebine & Fabien Tripier, 2015. "Excess Finance and Growth: Don't Lose Sight of Expansions !," Working Papers 2015-31, CEPII research center.
    10. Marc Steffen Rapp & Iuliia A. Udoieva, 2018. "What matters in the finance–growth nexus of advanced economies? Evidence from OECD countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(6), pages 676-690, February.
    11. Kodila-Tedika, Oasis & Asongu, Simplice, 2015. "Tribalism and Financial Development," MPRA Paper 67855, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Beck Thorsten & Büyükkarabacak Berrak & Rioja Felix K. & Valev Neven T., 2012. "Who Gets the Credit? And Does It Matter? Household vs. Firm Lending Across Countries," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-46, March.
    13. Allen, Franklin & Bartiloro, Laura & Gu, Xian & Kowalewski, Oskar, 2018. "Does economic structure determine financial structure?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 389-409.
    14. Beck, Thorsten & Degryse, Hans & Kneer, Christiane, 2014. "Is more finance better? Disentangling intermediation and size effects of financial systems," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 10(C), pages 50-64.
    15. Bonfiglioli, Alessandra, 2008. "Financial integration, productivity and capital accumulation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 337-355, December.
    16. Richard Bluhm & Denis de Crombrugghe & Adam Szirmai, 0. "Do Weak Institutions Prolong Crises? On the Identification, Characteristics, and Duration of Declines during Economic Slumps," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 34(3), pages 810-832.
    17. Nataliia Osina, 2021. "Global governance and gross capital flows dynamics," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 157(3), pages 463-493, August.
    18. Tori, Daniele & Onaran, Özlem, 2017. "The effects of financialisation and financial development on investment: evidence from firm-level data in Europe," Greenwich Papers in Political Economy 16089, University of Greenwich, Greenwich Political Economy Research Centre.
    19. Herwartz, Helmut & Walle, Yabibal M., 2014. "Openness and the finance-growth nexus," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 235-247.
    20. Soedarmono, Wahyoe & Hasan, Iftekhar & Arsyad, Nuruzzaman, 2017. "Non-linearity in the finance-growth nexus: Evidence from Indonesia," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 19-35.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic recession; Financial development; Macroeconomic disaster; Barro & Ursha database;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance
    • O50 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:glodps:555. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/glabode.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.