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Do budget deficits follow a linear or non-linear path?

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  • Sahar Bahmani

    (University of Wisconsin at Milwaukee)

Abstract

One method to test whether any government's fiscal policy has been effective in dealing with budget deficits is to test for mean reverting properties of deficits. If deficits-GDP ratio reverts to their mean, or are stationary, that will be an indication of taking corrective measure. Previous studies using standard linear ADF test did not find much support for the stationarity of deficits/GDP ratio. However, when we employ non-linear ADF test and data from 28 countries, we find support for stationarity of the deficits/GDP ratio in 50% of the countries in the sample.

Suggested Citation

  • Sahar Bahmani, 2007. "Do budget deficits follow a linear or non-linear path?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 5(14), pages 1-9.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-07e60005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Abderrahim Chibi & Sidi Mohamed Chekouri & Mohamed Benbouziane, 2015. "Assessing Fiscal Sustainability in Algeria: a Nonlinear Approach," Working Papers 962, Economic Research Forum, revised Oct 2015.

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    Keywords

    28 Countries.;

    JEL classification:

    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook

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