Nonlinear Nonparametric Prediction of the 90-Day T-Bill Rate
We employ a nonlinear, nonparametric method to model the stochastic behavior of changes in the 90-day U.S. T-bill rate. The estimation technique is locally weighted regression (LWR), a nearest-neighbor method, and the forecasting criteria are the root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute deviation (MAD). We compare the forecasting performance of the nonparametric fit to the performance of two benchmark linear models: an autoregressive model and a random-walk-with-drift model. The nonparametric fit results in significant improvements in forecasting accuracy as compared to benchmark linear models both in-sample and out-of-sample, thus establishing the presence of substantial nonlinear mean predictability of changes in the 90-day T-bill rate.
|Date of creation:||01 Jan 1996|
|Publication status:||published, Review of Financial Economics, 1997, 6:2, 187-198.|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Boston College, 140 Commonwealth Avenue, Chestnut Hill MA 02467 USA|
Web page: http://fmwww.bc.edu/EC/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Robert J. Hodrick, 1987.
"Risk, Uncertainty and Exchange Rates,"
NBER Working Papers
2429, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Abel, Andrew B., 1988.
"Stock prices under time-varying dividend risk : An exact solution in an infinite-horizon general equilibrium model,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 375-393.
- Andrew Abel, "undated". "Stock Prices Under Time-Varying Dividend Risk: An Exact Solution in an Infinite-Horizon General Equilibrium Model," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 15-88, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Andrew B. Abel, 1988. "Stock Prices Under Time-Varying Dividend Risk: An Exact Solution In An Infinite-Horizon General Equilibrium Model," NBER Working Papers 2621, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Christopher A. Sims, 1980. "Martingale-Like Behavior of Prices," NBER Working Papers 0489, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- James M. Nason, 1988. "The equity premium and time-varying risk behavior," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 11, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014.
"A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix,"
Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
- Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-708, May.
- Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1986. "A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and AutocorrelationConsistent Covariance Matrix," NBER Technical Working Papers 0055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- G. Pfann & P. Schotman & R. Tschernig, 1994.
"Nonlinear Interest Rate Dynamics and Implications for the Term Structure,"
SFB 373 Discussion Papers
1994,43, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
- Pfann, Gerard A. & Schotman, Peter C. & Tschernig, Rolf, 1996. "Nonlinear interest rate dynamics and implications for the term structure," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 149-176, September.
- Anderson, Heather M, 1997. "Transaction Costs and Non-linear Adjustment towards Equilibrium in the US Treasury Bill Market," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(4), pages 465-484, November.
- Peter C.B. Phillips, 1985.
"Time Series Regression with a Unit Root,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
740R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Feb 1986.
- Peter C.B. Phillips & Pierre Perron, 1986.
"Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
795R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Sep 1987.
- Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression," Cahiers de recherche 8633, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "PPUNIT: RATS procedure to perform Phillips-Perron Unit Root test," Statistical Software Components RTS00160, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Robert C. Merton, 2005.
"Theory of rational option pricing,"
World Scientific Book Chapters,
in: Theory Of Valuation, chapter 8, pages 229-288
World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
- Francis X. Diebold & James M. Nason, 1989.
"Nonparametric exchange rate prediction?,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
81, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1992. " Interest Rate Volatility and the Term Structure: A Two-Factor General Equilibrium Model," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1259-1282, September.
- Heath, David & Jarrow, Robert & Morton, Andrew, 1992.
"Bond Pricing and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: A New Methodology for Contingent Claims Valuation,"
Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 77-105, January.
- David Heath & Robert Jarrow & Andrew Morton, 2008. "Bond Pricing And The Term Structure Of Interest Rates: A New Methodology For Contingent Claims Valuation," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 13, pages 277-305 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
- Richard Baldwin & Richard K. Lyons, 1988. "The Mutual Amplification Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility and Unresponsive Trade Prices," NBER Working Papers 2677, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Meese, Richard A & Rose, Andrew K, 1990. "Nonlinear, Nonparametric, Nonessential Exchange Rate Estimation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 192-196, May.
- Brock, W.A. & Dechert, W.D. & LeBaron, B. & Scheinkman, J.A., 1995. "A Test for Independence Based on the Correlation Dimension," Working papers 9520, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "An Intertemporal General Equilibrium Model of Asset Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 363-384, March.
- Hamilton, James D., 1988. "Rational-expectations econometric analysis of changes in regime : An investigation of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 385-423.
- Hsieh, David A, 1991. " Chaos and Nonlinear Dynamics: Application to Financial Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1839-1877, December.
- Cleveland, William S. & Devlin, Susan J. & Grosse, Eric, 1988. "Regression by local fitting : Methods, properties, and computational algorithms," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 87-114, January.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:boc:bocoec:320. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christopher F Baum)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.