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Is Fiscal Policy Sustainable in Developing Economies?


  • Ghatak, Subrata
  • Sánchez-Fung, José R.


This paper investigates fiscal policy sustainability in Peru, the Philippines, South Africa, Thailand, and Venezuela using competing methodologies. Standard unit roots and cointegration analyses do not endorse the validity of the intertemporal budget constraint. In contrast, to varying degree across-countries, alternative testing employing a fiscal policy reaction function indicates sustainability defined as surplus adjustments in response to higher debt to income ratios. Corresponding debt-dynamics analyses show that corrective measures were put in place to revert non-sustainable trends in government debt. However, ancillary variables in the debt modeling produce statistically weak evidence of procyclical fiscal behavior in the Latin American countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Ghatak, Subrata & Sánchez-Fung, José R., 2006. "Is Fiscal Policy Sustainable in Developing Economies?," Discussion Papers 384, VATT Institute for Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:fer:dpaper:384

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    12. Rodriguez, Francisco & Sachs, Jeffrey D, 1999. "Why Do Resource-Abundant Economies Grow More Slowly?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 277-303, September.
    13. Michael Gavin & Roberto Perotti, 1997. "Fiscal Policy in Latin America," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 11-72 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. James G. MacKinnon, 1990. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests," Working Papers 1227, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Shruti SHASTRI & A.K. GIRI & Geetilaxmi MOHAPATRA, 2017. "An empirical assessment of fiscal sustainability for selected South Asian economies," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(1(610), S), pages 163-178, Spring.
    2. Masato Shizume, 2007. "Sustainability of Public Debt: Evidence from Pre-World War II Japan," Discussion Paper Series 201, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
    3. Paret, Anne-Charlotte, 2017. "Debt sustainability in emerging market countries: Some policy guidelines from a fan-chart approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 26-45.
    4. repec:agr:journl:v:xxiv:y:2017:i:1(610):p:163-178 is not listed on IDEAS


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