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A Rank Approach to Equity Forecast Construction

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  • Satchell, S.E.
  • Wright, S.M.

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to present a rank based approach to cross-sectional linear factor modelling. The emphasis is on approximating factor exposures in a consistent manner in order to facilitate the merging of subjective information (from professional investors) with objective information (from accounting data and/or state of the art quantitative models) in a statistically rigorous way without needing to impose the unrealistic simplifying assumptions typical of more standard time series models. We deal with the problems of identifying country and sector returns by an innovative hierarchical factor structure. This is all discussed from the perspective that investment models are not immutable but rather need to be designed with characteristics that are fit for their purpose; for example, returning aggregate county and sector forecasts that are consistent by construction.

Suggested Citation

  • Satchell, S.E. & Wright, S.M., 2005. "A Rank Approach to Equity Forecast Construction," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0553, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  • Handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:0553
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John C. Cox & Jonathan E. Ingersoll Jr. & Stephen A. Ross, 2005. "A Theory Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Sudipto Bhattacharya & George M Constantinides (ed.),Theory Of Valuation, chapter 5, pages 129-164, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70.
    3. Heston, Steven L. & Rouwenhorst, K. Geert & Wessels, Roberto E., 1995. "The structure of international stock returns and the integration of capital markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 173-197, September.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    : Linear Factor Models; Ranking; Robustness Exposures; Forecasting.;

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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