IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eneeco/v40y2013icp72-80.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Quantifying the risk to crude oil imports in China: An improved portfolio approach

Author

Listed:
  • Ge, Fenglong
  • Fan, Ying

Abstract

China's rapid economic development caused a sharp increase in crude oil demand. In 2011, China imported 254million tons of crude oil in total, with its dependence on imported oil reaching 56.5%. This paper carries out a quantitative study on the risk of China's crude oil imports by establishing an assessment model which has two primary characteristics. First, the model not only uses portfolio theory to assess the risk to China's crude oil imports, taking into consideration the effect of the diversified sources of imports, but also introduces a correlation coefficient which considers the risks associated with importing oil from oversea sources. Second, the correlation between import prices and global oil prices is analyzed with respect to each exporting country. The Ease of Doing Business Index grading system is introduced in order to represent the risk weight for each exporting country. Because of these improvements, the model provides operable methods for studying how global oil prices, import volumes, the diversification index, and the political and economic situation of the exporting countries affects China's crude oil import risks as well as offers a method for implementing optimal crude oil import strategies. It is concluded that China's crude oil import risks associated with the Middle East are not as precarious as researchers traditionally reported. Among countries in the Middle East, there exist obvious disparities and differences affecting the kinds and types of risks involved. Therefore, these risks should be treated piecemeal when performing an overall assessment of crude oil import risks in China. It should also be noted that with respect to the Middle East there is still room for China to optimize the mix of source countries in order to reduce risks. China should raise the volume of imports coming from low risk countries as well as add new low risk exporting countries to its importing portfolio.

Suggested Citation

  • Ge, Fenglong & Fan, Ying, 2013. "Quantifying the risk to crude oil imports in China: An improved portfolio approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 72-80.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:40:y:2013:i:c:p:72-80
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2013.06.009
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988313001229
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.eneco.2013.06.009?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Helm, Dieter, 2002. "Energy policy: security of supply, sustainability and competition," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 173-184, February.
    2. Wu, Gang & Wei, Yi-Ming & Fan, Ying & Liu, Lan-Cui, 2007. "An empirical analysis of the risk of crude oil imports in China using improved portfolio approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 4190-4199, August.
    3. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, March.
    4. Costantini, Valeria & Gracceva, Francesco & Markandya, Anil & Vicini, Giorgio, 2007. "Security of energy supply: Comparing scenarios from a European perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 210-226, January.
    5. Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-248, April.
    6. Wabiri, Njeri & Amusa, Hammed, 2010. "Quantifying South Africa's crude oil import risk: A multi-criteria portfolio model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 445-453, January.
    7. Yu, Zuwei, 2003. "A spatial mean-variance MIP model for energy market risk analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 255-268, May.
    8. Gotham, Douglas & Muthuraman, Kumar & Preckel, Paul & Rardin, Ronald & Ruangpattana, Suriya, 2009. "A load factor based mean-variance analysis for fuel diversification," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 249-256, March.
    9. Tamunopriye J. Agiobenebo, 2004. "Market Structure, Concentration Indices and Welfare Cost," Industrial Organization 0406011, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Delarue, Erik & De Jonghe, Cedric & Belmans, Ronnie & D'haeseleer, William, 2011. "Applying portfolio theory to the electricity sector: Energy versus power," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 12-23, January.
    11. Vivoda, Vlado, 2009. "Diversification of oil import sources and energy security: A key strategy or an elusive objective?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4615-4623, November.
    12. Gupta, Eshita, 2008. "Oil vulnerability index of oil-importing countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 1195-1211, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Carlo Andrea Bollino & Philipp Galkin, 2021. "Energy Security and Portfolio Diversification: Conventional and Novel Perspectives," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-24, July.
    2. Xiaolei Sun & Jun Hao & Jianping Li, 2022. "Multi-objective optimization of crude oil-supply portfolio based on interval prediction data," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 309(2), pages 611-639, February.
    3. Yu, Zhen & Xiao, Yao & Li, Jinpo, 2021. "How does geopolitical uncertainty affect Chinese overseas investment in the energy sector? Evidence from the South China Sea Dispute," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    4. Kong, Zhaoyang & Lu, Xi & Jiang, Qingzhe & Dong, Xiucheng & Liu, Guixian & Elbot, Noah & Zhang, Zhonghua & Chen, Shi, 2019. "Assessment of import risks for natural gas and its implication for optimal importing strategies: A case study of China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 11-18.
    5. Yang, Yuying & Li, Jianping & Sun, Xiaolei & Chen, Jianming, 2014. "Measuring external oil supply risk: A modified diversification index with country risk and potential oil exports," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 930-938.
    6. Rasoulinezhad, Ehsan, 2020. "Energy Trade and Economic Integration between the Commonwealth Independent States and China," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 35(1), pages 172-190.
    7. Ji, Qiang & Zhang, Hai-Ying & Zhang, Dayong, 2019. "The impact of OPEC on East Asian oil import security: A multidimensional analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 99-107.
    8. An, Qier & Wang, Lang & Qu, Debin & Zhang, Hujun, 2018. "Dependency network of international oil trade before and after oil price drop," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(PA), pages 1021-1033.
    9. Wang, Kai-Hua & Su, Chi-Wei & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona & Umar, Muhammad, 2021. "Whether crude oil dependence and CO2 emissions influence military expenditure in net oil importing countries?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    10. Zhao, Jing & Zhao, Ziru & Zhang, Huan, 2021. "The impact of growth, energy and financial development on environmental pollution in China: New evidence from a spatial econometric analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    11. Shao, Yanmin & Qiao, Han & Wang, Shouyang, 2017. "What determines China's crude oil importing trade patterns? Empirical evidences from 55 countries between 1992 and 2015," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 854-862.
    12. Benye Shi & Tian Cai, 2020. "Has China’s Oil Investment in Belt and Road Initiative Countries Helped Its Oil Import?," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-13, June.
    13. Wang, Minggang & Tian, Lixin & Du, Ruijin, 2016. "Research on the interaction patterns among the global crude oil import dependency countries: A complex network approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 779-791.
    14. Zhang, Hai-Ying & Ji, Qiang & Fan, Ying, 2014. "Competition, transmission and pattern evolution: A network analysis of global oil trade," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 312-322.
    15. Ang, B.W. & Choong, W.L. & Ng, T.S., 2015. "Energy security: Definitions, dimensions and indexes," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1077-1093.
    16. Bigerna, Simona & D'Errico, Maria Chiara & Polinori, Paolo & Simshauer, Paul, 2022. "Renewable energy and portfolio volatility spillover effects of GCC oil exporting countries," MPRA Paper 114164, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Zhang, Wencheng & Wei, Rui & Peng, Shuijun, 2020. "The oil-slick trade: An analysis of embodied crude oil in China's trade and consumption," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    18. Sato, Masahiro & Kharrazi, Ali & Nakayama, Hirofumi & Kraines, Steven & Yarime, Masaru, 2017. "Quantifying the supplier-portfolio diversity of embodied energy: Strategic implications for strengthening energy resilience," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 41-52.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sato, Masahiro & Kharrazi, Ali & Nakayama, Hirofumi & Kraines, Steven & Yarime, Masaru, 2017. "Quantifying the supplier-portfolio diversity of embodied energy: Strategic implications for strengthening energy resilience," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 41-52.
    2. Sun, Xiaolei & Li, Jianping & Tang, Ling & Wu, Dengsheng, 2012. "Identifying the risk-return tradeoff and exploring the dynamic risk exposure of country portfolio of the FSU's oil economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2494-2503.
    3. Vivoda, Vlado, 2019. "LNG import diversification and energy security in Asia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 967-974.
    4. Vivoda, Vlado, 2022. "LNG export diversification and demand security: A comparative study of major exporters," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    5. Chuang, Ming Chih & Ma, Hwong Wen, 2013. "Energy security and improvements in the function of diversity indices—Taiwan energy supply structure case study," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 9-20.
    6. Liu, Litao & Cao, Zhi & Liu, Xiaojie & Shi, Lei & Cheng, Shengkui & Liu, Gang, 2020. "Oil security revisited: An assessment based on complex network analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    7. Yang, Yuying & Li, Jianping & Sun, Xiaolei & Chen, Jianming, 2014. "Measuring external oil supply risk: A modified diversification index with country risk and potential oil exports," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 930-938.
    8. Vivoda, Vlado, 2009. "Diversification of oil import sources and energy security: A key strategy or an elusive objective?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4615-4623, November.
    9. Månsson, André & Johansson, Bengt & Nilsson, Lars J., 2014. "Assessing energy security: An overview of commonly used methodologies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 1-14.
    10. Vithayasrichareon, Peerapat & MacGill, Iain F., 2013. "Assessing the value of wind generation in future carbon constrained electricity industries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 400-412.
    11. Sun, Xiaolei & Liu, Chang & Chen, Xiuwen & Li, Jianping, 2017. "Modeling systemic risk of crude oil imports: Case of China’s global oil supply chain," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 449-465.
    12. Aleh Cherp & Jessica Jewell, 2013. "Energy security assessment framework and three case studies," Chapters, in: Hugh Dyer & Maria Julia Trombetta (ed.), International Handbook of Energy Security, chapter 8, pages 146-173, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    13. Paulino Martinez-Fernandez & Fernando deLlano-Paz & Anxo Calvo-Silvosa & Isabel Soares, 2018. "Pollutant versus non-pollutant generation technologies: a CML-analogous analysis," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 199-212, December.
    14. van Moerkerk, Mike & Crijns-Graus, Wina, 2016. "A comparison of oil supply risks in EU, US, Japan, China and India under different climate scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 148-158.
    15. Inzunza, Andrés & Moreno, Rodrigo & Bernales, Alejandro & Rudnick, Hugh, 2016. "CVaR constrained planning of renewable generation with consideration of system inertial response, reserve services and demand participation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 104-117.
    16. Zhao, Chunfu & Chen, Bin, 2014. "China’s oil security from the supply chain perspective: A review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 269-279.
    17. Mohsin, M. & Zhou, P. & Iqbal, N. & Shah, S.A.A., 2018. "Assessing oil supply security of South Asia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 438-447.
    18. Kapil Narula & B. Sudhakara Reddy, 2014. "Three Blind Men and an Elephant: The Case of Energy Indices to Measure Energy Security and Sustainability," Working Papers id:5989, eSocialSciences.
    19. Narula, Kapil & Reddy, B. Sudhakara, 2015. "Three blind men and an elephant: The case of energy indices to measure energy security and energy sustainability," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 148-158.
    20. Pérez Odeh, Rodrigo & Watts, David & Flores, Yarela, 2018. "Planning in a changing environment: Applications of portfolio optimisation to deal with risk in the electricity sector," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 82(P3), pages 3808-3823.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:40:y:2013:i:c:p:72-80. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.