Are the Nordic Stock Markets Mean Reverting?
In this paper we test for mean reversion in the Nordic stock markets using monthly nominal data 1947-1998. By simply account for the heteroscedasticity of the data with a regime-switching model of normal distributions and taking estimation bias into account via a Bayesian approach we can find no support of mean reversion. This is a contradiction to some previous result from Denmark and Sweden. Our findings suggest that mixtures of two regimes can characterize the each stock market and within the regimes the stock market is random. This finding of randomness is in line with recent evidence in literature.
|Date of creation:||30 Aug 2001|
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- Myung Jig Kim & Charles R. Nelson & Richard Startz, 1988.
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NBER Working Papers
2795, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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- Dueker, Michael, 1999.
"Conditional Heteroscedasticity in Qualitative Response Models of Time Series: A Gibbs-Sampling Approach to the Bank Prime Rate,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 17(4), pages 466-72, October.
- Michael Dueker, 1998. "Conditional heteroskedasticity in qualitative response models of time series: a Gibbs sampling approach to the bank prime rate," Working Papers 1998-011, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Graflund, Andreas, 2000. "A Bayesian Inference Approach to Testing Mean Reversion in the Swedish Stock Market," Working Papers 2000:8, Lund University, Department of Economics, revised 09 Nov 2000.
- Andreas Graflund, 2000. "A Bayes Inference Approach to Testing Mean Reversion in the Swedish Stock Market," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1363, Econometric Society.
- Cochrane, John H, 1988. "How Big Is the Random Walk in GNP?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 893-920, October.
- Malliaropulos, Dimitrios & Priestley, Richard, 1999. "Mean reversion in Southeast Asian stock markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 355-384, October.
- Luginbuhl, Rob & de Vos, Aart, 1999. "Bayesian Analysis of an Unobserved-Component Time Series Model of GDP with Markov-Switching and Time-Varying Growths," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(4), pages 456-65, October.
- Kim, Chang-Jin & Nelson, Charles R. & Startz, Richard, 1998. "Testing for mean reversion in heteroskedastic data based on Gibbs-sampling-augmented randomization1," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 131-154, June.
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