Examining the stochastic behavior of REIT returns: Evidence from the regime switching approach
In this paper the stochastic behavior of the returns on real estate investment trusts (REITs) is examined by using the unobserved component Markov switching (UC-MS) model. This approach endogenously permits the volatility to switch as the date and regime change and allows us to decompose the permanent and transitory components in REIT returns at monthly frequencies. The empirical evidence clearly shows that, for all of the REIT returns, the overall variance of the transitory component is significantly smaller than the corresponding variance for the permanent component. The durations of the high-variance regimes for both the fundamental and transitory components are short-lived and revert to normal levels quickly.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Shyh-Wei Chen & Chung-Hua Shen, 2004. "Price Common Volatility or Volume Common Volatility? Evidence from Taiwan's Exchange Rate and Stock Markets," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 185-211, 06.
- Harvey,Andrew C., 1991.
"Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter,"
Cambridge University Press, number 9780521405737, june. pag.
- Harvey,Andrew C., 1990. "Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521321969, june. pag.
- John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1987.
"Are Output Fluctuations Transitory?,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 102(4), pages 857-880.
- Campbell, John & Mankiw, Gregory, 1987. "Are Output Fluctuations Transitory?," Scholarly Articles 3122545, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1986. "Are Output Fluctuations Transitory?," NBER Working Papers 1916, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Vinod Chandrashekaran, 1999. "Time-Series Properties and Diversification Benefits of REIT Returns," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 17(1), pages 91-112.
- Kim, C.J., 1992.
"Unobserved-Component Time-Series Models with Markov- Switching Heteroskedasticity: Changes in Regimes and the Link between Inflation Rates and Inflation Uncertainty,"
92-1, York (Canada) - Department of Economics.
- Kim, Chang-Jin, 1993. "Unobserved-Component Time Series Models with Markov-Switching Heteroscedasticity: Changes in Regime and the Link between Inflation Rates and Inflation Uncertainty," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(3), pages 341-49, July.
- James M. Poterba & Lawrence H. Summers, 1987.
"Mean Reversion in Stock Prices: Evidence and Implications,"
NBER Working Papers
2343, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Poterba, James M. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1988. "Mean reversion in stock prices : Evidence and Implications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 27-59, October.
- Hamilton, James D. & Susmel, Raul, 1994.
"Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and changes in regime,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 307-333.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to estimate Hamilton-Susmel Markov Switching ARCH model," Statistical Software Components RTZ00083, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Yuming Li & Ko Wang, 1995. "The Predictability of REIT Returns and Market Segmentatio," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 10(4), pages 471-482.
- Karolyi, G Andrew & Sanders, Anthony B, 1998. "The Variation of Economic Risk Premiums in Real Estate Returns," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 245-62, November.
- Cotter, John & Stevenson, Simon, 2005.
"Multivariate Modeling of Daily REIT Volatility,"
3524, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Robert T. Kleiman & James E. Payne & Anandi P. Sahu, 2002. "Random Walks and Market Efficiency: Evidence from International Real Estate Markets," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 24(3), pages 279-298.
- Watson, Mark W., 1986. "Univariate detrending methods with stochastic trends," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 49-75, July.
- John Cotter & Simon Stevenson, 2011.
"Modeling Long Memory in REITs,"
- Psaradakis Zacharias & Spagnolo Nicola, 2002. "Power Properties of Nonlinearity Tests for Time Series with Markov Regimes," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(3), pages 1-16, November.
- Devaney, Michael, 2001. "Time varying risk premia for real estate investment trusts: A GARCH-M model," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 335-346.
- Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
- Ang, Andrew & Bekaert, Geert, 2002.
"Regime Switches in Interest Rates,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 163-82, April.
- David C. Ling & Andy Naranjo, 1999. "The Integration of Commercial Real Estate Markets and Stock Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 27(3), pages 483-515.
- Liu, Crocker H, et al, 1990. "The Integration of the Real Estate Market and the Stock Market: Some Preliminary Evidence," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 261-82, September.
- Shyh-Wei Chen & Chung-Hua Shen, 2007. "Evidence of the duration-dependence from the stock markets in the Pacific Rim economies," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(11), pages 1461-1474.
- Chen, Nai-Fu & Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1986. "Economic Forces and the Stock Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 383-403, July.
- Lamoureux, Christopher G & Lastrapes, William D, 1990. "Persistence in Variance, Structural Change, and the GARCH Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 225-34, April.
- Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Choi, Kyongwook, 2007. "Characteristics of permanent and transitory returns in oil-sensitive emerging stock markets: The case of GCC countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 231-245, July.
- James D. Peterson & Cheng-Ho Hsieh, 1997. "Do Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds Explain Returns on REITs?," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 25(2), pages 321-345.
- Bhar, Ramaprasad & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2004. "Empirical characteristics of the permanent and transitory components of stock return: analysis in a Markov switching heteroscedasticity framework," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 157-165, February.
- Jorge Belaire-Franch & Stanley McGreal & Kwaku K. Opong & James R. Webb, 2007. "A Nonparametric Variance-Ratio Test of the Behavior of U.K. Real Estate and Construction Indices," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 10(2), pages 94-112.
- Lastrapes, William D, 1989. "Exchange Rate Volatility and U.S. Monetary Policy: An ARCH Application," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 21(1), pages 66-77, February.
- Cochrane, John H. & Sbordone, Argia M., 1988. "Multivariate estimates of the permanent components of GNP and stock prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 255-296.
- John Okunev & Patrick J. Wilson, 1997.
"Using Nonlinear Tests to Examine Integration Between Real Estate and Stock Markets,"
Real Estate Economics,
American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 25(3), pages 487-503.
- John Okunev & Pat Wilson, 1995. "Using Non-Linear Tests to Examine Integration Between Real Estate and Equity Markets," Working Paper Series 47, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
- Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2011. "The nonlinear effects of expected and unexpected components of monetary policy on the dynamics of REIT returns," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 911-920, May.
- Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1988. "Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 246-73, April.
- Don Bredin & Stuart Hyde & Dirk Nitzsche & Gerard O'reilly, 2007. "UK Stock Returns and the Impact of Domestic Monetary Policy Shocks," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(5-6), pages 872-888.
- James Payne & Anandi Sahu, 2004. "Random walks, cointegration, and the transmission of shocks across global real estate and equity markets," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 28(2), pages 198-210, June.
- James Payne & Hassan Mohammadi, 2004. "The transmission of shocks across real estate investment trust (REIT) markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(17), pages 1211-1217.
- James E. Payne, 2006. "The response of sub-sector REIT returns to shocks in fundamental state variables," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 2(2), pages 71-75, March.
- Chan, Kam Fong & Treepongkaruna, Sirimon & Brooks, Robert & Gray, Stephen, 2011. "Asset market linkages: Evidence from financial, commodity and real estate assets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 1415-1426, June.
- Ewing, Bradley T. & Payne, James E., 2005. "The response of real estate investment trust returns to macroeconomic shocks," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 293-300, March.
- James Payne, 2003. "Shocks to macroeconomic state variables and the risk premium of REITs," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(11), pages 671-677.
- Kim, Chang-Jin & Kim, Myung-Jig, 1996. "Transient Fads and the Crash of '87," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(1), pages 41-58, Jan.-Feb..
- Patrick Wilson & Simon Stevenson & Ralf Zurbruegg, 2007. "Foreign Property Shocks and the Impact on Domestic Securitized Real Estate Markets: An Unobserved Components Approach," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 407-424, April.
- Glascock, John L & Lu, Chiuling & So, Raymond W, 2000. "Further Evidence on the Integration of REIT, Bond, and Stock Returns," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 177-94, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:29:y:2012:i:2:p:291-298. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.