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Random Walks and Market Efficiency: Evidence from International Real Estate Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Robert T. Kleiman

    () (York University, Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3)

  • James E. Payne

    () (Eastern Kentucky University, Richmond, KY 40475)

  • Anandi P. Sahu

    () (Oakland University, Rochester, MI 48309)

Abstract

This study performs tests of the random walk hypothesis for international commercial real estate markets utilizing stock market indices of real estate share prices for three geographical regions: Europe, Asia and North America. The augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-Perron unit root tests and Cochrane variance ratio test find that each of these markets (as well as associated broader stock markets) exhibits random walk behavior. Moreover, a non-parametric runs test provides support for weak-form market efficiency in the real estate markets. In addition, Johansen-Juselius co-integration analysis reveals that all three markets appear co-integrated and share a common long-run stochastic trend. Results of co-integration analyses and vector error correction models suggest that diversification benefits through international real estate securities can only be achieved in the short run.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert T. Kleiman & James E. Payne & Anandi P. Sahu, 2002. "Random Walks and Market Efficiency: Evidence from International Real Estate Markets," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 24(3), pages 279-298.
  • Handle: RePEc:jre:issued:v:24:n:3:2002:p:279-298
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Nafeesa Yunus & J. Hansz & Paul Kennedy, 2012. "Dynamic Interactions Between Private and Public Real Estate Markets: Some International Evidence," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(4), pages 1021-1040, November.
    2. Sanjay Rajagopal & Patrick Hays, 2012. "Return Persistence in the Indian Real Estate Market," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 15(3), pages 283-305.
    3. John Cotter & Simon Stevenson, 2008. "Modeling Long Memory in REITs," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 36(3), pages 533-554, September.
    4. Thomas C. Chiang & Hooi Hooi Lean & Wing-Keung Wong, 2008. "Do REITs Outperform Stocks and Fixed-Income Assets? New Evidence from Mean-Variance and Stochastic Dominance Approaches," Journal of Risk and Financial Management, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 1(1), pages 1-40, December.
    5. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Lee, Cheng-Feng & Lee, Chi-Chuan, 2014. "Asymmetric dynamics in REIT prices: Further evidence based on quantile regression analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 29-37.
    6. John G. Gallo & Larry J. Lockwood & Ying Zhang, 2013. "Structuring Global Property Portfolios: A Cointegration Approach," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 35(1), pages 53-82.
    7. Kim Liow & Wei Chen, 2013. "Is There Volatility Convergence in Asia-Pacific Securitized Real Estate Markets?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 370-390, August.
    8. Kim Liow, 2009. "Long-term Memory in Volatility: Some Evidence from International Securitized Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 39(4), pages 415-438, November.
    9. Jorge Belaire-Franch & Kwaku Opong, 2013. "A Time Series Analysis of U.K. Construction and Real Estate Indices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 516-542, April.
    10. Felix Schindler, 2013. "Predictability and Persistence of the Price Movements of the S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Indices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 44-90, January.
    11. Nafeesa Yunus, 2009. "Increasing Convergence Between U.S. and International Securitized Property Markets: Evidence Based on Cointegration Tests," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 37(3), pages 383-411.
    12. Paul Gallimore & J. Andrew Hansz & Wikrom Prombutr & Ying Zhang, 2014. "Long-term Cointegrative and Short-term Causal Relations among U.S. Real Estate Sectors," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 17(3), pages 359-394.
    13. John Gallo & Ying Zhang, 2010. "Global Property Market Diversification," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 41(4), pages 458-485, November.
    14. James Payne & Hassan Mohammadi, 2004. "The transmission of shocks across real estate investment trust (REIT) markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(17), pages 1211-1217.
    15. Felix Schindler, 2014. "Persistence and Predictability in UK House Price Movements," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 132-163, January.
    16. Kim Hiang Liow & Graeme Newell, 2012. "Investment Dynamics of the Greater China Securitized Real Estate Markets," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 34(3), pages 399-428.
    17. repec:kap:jrefec:v:56:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s11146-017-9601-8 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. repec:ire:issued:v:20:n:03:2017:p:287-324 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Chen, Shyh-Wei & Shen, Chung-Hua, 2012. "Examining the stochastic behavior of REIT returns: Evidence from the regime switching approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 291-298.
    20. Nafeesa Yunus, 2013. "Dynamic interactions among property types: International evidence based on cointegration tests," Journal of Property Investment & Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 31(2), pages 135-159, March.
    21. Kim Hiang Liow & Felix Schindler, 2014. "An Assessment of the Relationship between Public Real Estate and Stock Markets at the Local, Regional, and Global Levels," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 17(2), pages 157-202.

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    JEL classification:

    • L85 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Real Estate Services

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