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Macroeconomic Forecast Models – Concepts And Theoretical Notions


  • Florin Paul Costel LILEA

    („Artifex” University of Bucharest)

  • Andreea – Ioana MARINESCU

    (Bucharest University of Economic Studies)


The present age is characterized by a rapid system of change, thus increasing the need to know these changes with the anticipation of future developments. Even if, in anticipation of future developments with the help of the macroeconomic forecast, we are talking about relative knowledge, this knowledge allows both the creation of a set of solutions to adapt to the transformations that are required, as well as the reduction of possible risks. Thus, in this article, the authors intend to present some theoretical notions regarding the macroeconomic forecast and its role in determining the evolution of activities carried out in various economic or social sectors. At the same time, based on the theoretical notions, the authors will present the particularities of the use of the linear regression model in the analysis of the evolution of the macroeconomic indicators.

Suggested Citation

  • Florin Paul Costel LILEA & Andreea – Ioana MARINESCU, 2017. "Macroeconomic Forecast Models – Concepts And Theoretical Notions," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 65(6), pages 118-123, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:rsr:supplm:v:65:y:2017:i:6:p:118-123

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. repec:rsr:supplm:v:65:y:2017:i:3:p:169-181 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Elena Andreou & Eric Ghysels & Andros Kourtellos, 2013. "Should Macroeconomic Forecasters Use Daily Financial Data and How?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(2), pages 240-251, April.
    3. James D. Hamilton & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2007. "Normalization in Econometrics," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 221-252.
    4. S. Boragan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold, 2010. "Real-Time Macroeconomic Monitoring: Real Activity, Inflation, and Interactions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 20-24, May.
    5. Constantin ANGHELACHE & Alexandru MANOLE & Mădălina-Gabriela ANGHEL, 2017. "Macroeconomic models used in structural analysis of GDP," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(1(610), S), pages 197-206, Spring.
    6. Todd E. Clark & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2015. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Performance under Alternative Specifications of Time‐Varying Volatility," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(4), pages 551-575, June.
    7. repec:agr:journl:v:xxiv:y:2017:i:1(610):p:197-206 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Constantin ANGHELACHE & Mario G.R. PAGLIACCI & Ligia PRODAN, 2013. "Model For Macroeconomic - Analyse Based On The Regression Function," Romanian Statistical Review, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 61(1), pages 18-30, February.
    9. Constantin ANGHELACHE & Janusz GRABARA & Alexandru MANOLE, 2016. "Using the Dynamic Model ARMA to Forecast the Macroeconomic Evolution," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 64(1), pages 3-13, January.
    10. Bardsen, Gunnar & Eitrheim, Oyvind & Jansen, Eilev S. & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2005. "The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Modelling," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199246502.
    11. Constantin Anghelache & Alexandru Manole & Madalina Gabriela Anghel & Marius Popovici, 2016. "The analysis of the interconnections between the indicators of the external payment balance and the macroeconomic aggregates of results," Romanian Statistical Review, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 64(1), pages 3-8, March.
    12. Oller, Lars-Erik & Teterukovsky, Alex, 2007. "Quantifying the quality of macroeconomic variables," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 205-217.
    13. Constantin ANGHELACHE & Alexandru MANOLE & Mădălina Gabriela ANGHEL & Aurelian DIACONU, 2016. "Essentials aspects on macroeconomic variables and their correlations," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(1(606), S), pages 151-162, Spring.
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    More about this item


    anticipation; macroeconomic forecast; model; simple regression; evolution;

    JEL classification:

    • C40 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - General
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation


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