IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rsr/supplm/v65y2017i6p16-28.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Quarterly Analysis Of Gross Domestic Product Evolution - Significance Of Growth Rate

Author

Listed:
  • Constantin ANGHELACHE

    (Bucharest University of Economic Studies/„Artifex" University of Bucharest)

  • Madalina-Gabriela ANGHEL

    („Artifex" University of Bucharest)

  • Radu STOICA

    (Bucharest University of Economic Studies)

Abstract

In this article, the authors propose to realize an analysis of the concrete results obtained by Romania in the first quarter of 2017. It is a quarterly analysis of the gross domestic product with a few elements that can help to more realistically forecast the evolution of this indicator of macroeconomic results, gross domestic product. The importance of studying the results achieved in the first quarter is also justified by the fact that it is the first in the governance program set for the period 2017-2020. The forecasts behind the substantiation of the income and expenditure budget were somewhat controversial. The National Forecasting Institute of Romania suggested the possibility of an increase of about 4.8% in 2017. Out of the European Union came results of a forecast at the level of the Union that led to a lower level of 3.8%. The program of measures aimed at an economic growth outlook of about 5.2% throughout the year 2017 and which, through the measures taken, led to a variant of economic growth based on consumption. In this context, the provisional results obtained and published by the National Institute of Statistics show that Romania gained 5.7%. This growth, based on the raw data series as well as the 5.6% increase based on the seasonally adjusted data series compared to the same quarter of 2016, is a positive fact. The authors compared comparatively the first-trimester result in parallel with that in the same period of 2015 and 2016, both in the gross series and the seasonally adjusted series, showing an increase. Compared to the last quarter of 2016, Romania achieved a growth rate of 1.7%. If we discuss the evolution of quarterly gross domestic product growth in the following quarters and then year-round using the chain-based index method, we can repro- duce that Romania will achieve a growth rate by the end of 2017 Compared with the previous year of about 6%. The authors interpret the data they have and graphically, being suggestive and highlighting a quarterly increase from 2010 constantly until the first quarter of 2017. The published data are used and the authors believe that in the context of higher foreign direct investment, the allocation of additional funds for investment and the higher access to EU funds, Romania can stabilize for the year 2017 and even for the following years a rate of Annual growth of around 5-5.5%. The study is argued and there are presented relevant data attesting the easy return of Romania’s economy. Of course, economic growth based on consumption is specific to the stage that our country is crossing, but on this background if announced measures will be taken and available resources will be available, we can appreciate that an increase in the living standard of the population Romania.

Suggested Citation

  • Constantin ANGHELACHE & Madalina-Gabriela ANGHEL & Radu STOICA, 2017. "Quarterly Analysis Of Gross Domestic Product Evolution - Significance Of Growth Rate," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 65(6), pages 16-28, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:rsr:supplm:v:65:y:2017:i:6:p:16-28
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.revistadestatistica.ro/supliment/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/RRSS_06_2017_A01_EN.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Azzimonti, Marina & Battaglini, Marco & Coate, Stephen, 2016. "The costs and benefits of balanced budget rules: Lessons from a political economy model of fiscal policy," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 45-61.
    2. repec:agr:journl:v:4(605):y:2015:i:4(605):p:151-158 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Ricardo Reis, 2009. "The Time-Series Properties of Aggregate Consumption: Implications for the Costs of Fluctuations," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(4), pages 722-753, June.
    4. repec:agr:journl:v:4(605):y:2015:i:4(605):p:153-158 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Madalina Gabriela ANGHEL & Aurelian DIACONU & Cristina SACALA, 2015. "Analysis of the Evolution of Gross Domestic Product by Categories of Users," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 63(10), pages 35-42, October.
    6. Daniel DUMITRESCU & Mădălina Gabriela ANGHEL & Constantin ANGHELACHE, 2015. "Analysis Model of GDP Dependence on the Structural Variables," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(4(605), W), pages 151-158, Winter.
    7. Rafael Dix‐Carneiro, 2014. "Trade Liberalization and Labor Market Dynamics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(3), pages 825-885, May.
    8. Aisen, Ari & Veiga, Francisco José, 2013. "How does political instability affect economic growth?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 151-167.
    9. Constantin Anghelache & Madalina Gabriela Anghel & Marius Popovici, 2015. "Multiple Regressions Used in Analysis of Private Consumption and Public Final Consumption Evolution," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 5(4), pages 69-73, October.
    10. M. Fleurbaey., 2012. "Beyond GDP: The Quest for a Measure of Social Welfare," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 3.
    11. Madalina-Gabriela ANGHEL & Aurelian DIACONU, 2016. "Equilibrium and auto regression models used for macroeconomic prognosis," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 64(7), pages 70-78, July.
    12. Jordi Galí & Luca Gambetti, 2015. "The Effects of Monetary Policy on Stock Market Bubbles: Some Evidence," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 233-257, January.
    13. Constantin ANGHELACHE & Madalina Anghel, 2015. "Model of analysis of the dynamics of the DFI (DFI) sold correlated with the evolution of the GDP at European level," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 63(10), pages 79-85, October.
    14. Tinde Dobrodolac, 2011. "Forecasting By Econometric Models As Support To Management," Perspectives of Innovation in Economics and Business (PIEB), Prague Development Center, vol. 7(1), pages 72-76, January.
    15. Constantin ANGHELACHE & Alexandru MANOLE & Madalina Gabriela ANGHEL, 2015. "The analysis of the correlation between GDP, private and public consumption through multiple regression," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 63(8), pages 34-40, August.
    16. Constantin Anghelache & Alexandru Manole & Madalina Gabriela Anghel & Marius Popovici, 2016. "The analysis of the interconnections between the indicators of the external payment balance and the macroeconomic aggregates of results," Romanian Statistical Review, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 64(1), pages 3-8, March.
    17. Foerster, Andrew T. & Choi, Jason, 2016. "Consumption Growth Regimes and the Post-Financial Crisis Recovery," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q II, pages 25-48.
    18. repec:ags:jrpieb:128639 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Constantin ANGHELACHE & Alexandru MANOLE & Mădălina Gabriela ANGHEL & Aurelian DIACONU, 2016. "Essentials aspects on macroeconomic variables and their correlations," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(1(606), S), pages 151-162, Spring.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:rsr:supplm:v:65:y:2017:i:10:p:58-66 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Growth; Gross Domestic Product; quarter; consumption; investment;

    JEL classification:

    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rsr:supplm:v:65:y:2017:i:6:p:16-28. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Adrian Visoiu). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/stagvro.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.