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Are business cycles independent in the G7?

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  • Philip Bodman
  • Mark Crosby

Abstract

In this paper we examine the relationships between business cycles in the G7 countries. We focus on whether recessionary periods in one country are independent of the timing of recessions in other countries in the G7, using three different methods for dating recessions. We find that the evidence is mixed on whether phases of the business cycle in North America and in European countries are independent, or whether there is a common phase structure in the business cycle across all the G7 economies. NBER dates suggest that business cycles are synchronised, while other methods for generating business cycle chronologies are more consistent with regional, rather than international cycles. We also find mixed evidence on whether the UK is synchronised with European countries, while Japan quite clearly has the cycle that is most independent of other G7 countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Philip Bodman & Mark Crosby, 2005. "Are business cycles independent in the G7?," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(4), pages 483-499.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:intecj:v:19:y:2005:i:4:p:483-499
    DOI: 10.1080/10168730500381917
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Xi, Ning & Muneepeerakul, Rachata & Azaele, Sandro & Wang, Yougui, 2014. "Maximum entropy model for business cycle synchronization," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 413(C), pages 189-194.

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    Keywords

    G7; business cycles; recessions;
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