IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jijfss/v11y2023i4p143-d1295107.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Causal Relationships between Oil Prices and Key Macroeconomic Variables in India

Author

Listed:
  • Kamal P. Upadhyaya

    (Department of Economics and Business Analytics, University of New Haven, West Haven, CT 06516, USA)

  • Raja Nag

    (Department of Accounting and Financial Studies, New York Institute of Technology, Glen Head, NY 11545, USA)

  • Franklin G. Mixon

    (Center for Economic Education, Columbus State University, Columbus, GA 31907, USA)

Abstract

India is among the largest and fastest-growing economies in the world. To continue its growth, energy is and will continue to be one of its most important considerations. With a population of over one billion, India is the third largest consumer of petroleum on the globe. To maintain this ranking, India imports a large percentage of its total oil consumption. Given India’s current position as a large importer of oil, how does oil price volatility affect the Indian economy? This paper examines the effect of oil price volatility on inflation, economic growth, and the stock market in India. Statistical tests suggest that the overall price level, the real effective exchange rate, and oil prices are negatively related to aggregate output in the long run. Granger causality test results derived from a vector error correction model support bidirectional causality between oil prices and aggregate output, indicating that a change in oil prices also affects aggregate output in the short run.

Suggested Citation

  • Kamal P. Upadhyaya & Raja Nag & Franklin G. Mixon, 2023. "Causal Relationships between Oil Prices and Key Macroeconomic Variables in India," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijfss:v:11:y:2023:i:4:p:143-:d:1295107
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7072/11/4/143/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7072/11/4/143/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pramod Kumar, Naik & Puja, Padhi, 2012. "The impact of Macroeconomic Fundamentals on Stock Prices revisited: An Evidence from Indian Data," MPRA Paper 38980, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Nini Johana Marín-Rodríguez & Juan David González-Ruiz & Sergio Botero Botero, 2022. "Dynamic Co-Movements among Oil Prices and Financial Assets: A Scientometric Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-26, October.
    3. Cologni, Alessandro & Manera, Matteo, 2008. "Oil prices, inflation and interest rates in a structural cointegrated VAR model for the G-7 countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 856-888, May.
    4. Kamal Upadhyaya & Mukti Upadhyay, 1999. "Output effects of devaluation: Evidence from Asia," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(6), pages 89-103.
    5. Witold Orzeszko, 2021. "Nonlinear Causality between Crude Oil Prices and Exchange Rates: Evidence and Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-16, September.
    6. Hamilton, James D., 2003. "What is an oil shock?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 363-398, April.
    7. Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-248, April.
    8. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    9. Cebula, Richard & Saadatmand, Yassaman & Piccone, Yvonne, 2002. "An Empirical Note on the Inflation Impact of the Price of Imported Crude Oil: The Case of Germany," MPRA Paper 50887, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Troster, Victor & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2018. "Renewable energy, oil prices, and economic activity: A Granger-causality in quantiles analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 440-452.
    2. Mohamed El Hédi Arouri & Philippe Foulquier & Julien Fouquau, 2011. "Oil Prices and Stock Markets in Europe: A Sector Perspective," Recherches économiques de Louvain, De Boeck Université, vol. 77(1), pages 5-30.
    3. Aharon, David Y. & Azman Aziz, Mukhriz Izraf & Kallir, Ido, 2023. "Oil price shocks and inflation: A cross-national examination in the ASEAN5+3 countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    4. Jaime Casassus & Freddy Higuera, 2011. "Stock Return Predictability and Oil Prices," Documentos de Trabajo 406, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
    5. Ioannidis, Christos & Ka, Kook, 2018. "The impact of oil price shocks on the term structure of interest rates," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 601-620.
    6. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-569 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. repec:mth:ijafr8:v:9:y:2019:i:1:p:298-316 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Miller, J. Isaac & Ratti, Ronald A., 2009. "Crude oil and stock markets: Stability, instability, and bubbles," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 559-568, July.
    9. Park, Jungwook & Ratti, Ronald A., 2008. "Oil price shocks and stock markets in the U.S. and 13 European countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2587-2608, September.
    10. Pal, Debdatta & Mitra, Subrata Kumar, 2019. "Asymmetric oil price transmission to the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar: A multiple threshold NARDL modelling approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    11. Ajmi, Ahdi Noomen & El Montasser, Ghassen & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2013. "Testing the relationships between energy consumption and income in G7 countries with nonlinear causality tests," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 126-133.
    12. Ding, Haoyuan & Kim, Hyung-Gun & Park, Sung Y., 2016. "Crude oil and stock markets: Causal relationships in tails?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 58-69.
    13. Ismail Genc & Abdullah Jubain & Abdullah Al-Mutairi, 2010. "Economic versus financial integration or decoupling between the US and the GCC," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(20), pages 1577-1583.
    14. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Miller, Stephen M., 2015. "Regime switching model of US crude oil and stock market prices: 1859 to 2013," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 317-327.
    15. PIERRET, Diane, 2013. "The systemic risk of energy markets," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2013018, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    16. Hem C. Basnet & Kamal P. Upadhyaya, 2015. "Impact of oil price shocks on output, inflation and the real exchange rate: evidence from selected ASEAN countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(29), pages 3078-3091, June.
    17. Matteo Manera & Alessandro Cologni, 2006. "The Asymmetric Effects of Oil Shocks on Output Growth: A Markov-Switching Analysis for the G-7 Countries," Working Papers 2006.29, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    18. Rizvi, Aun & Masih, Mansur, 2014. "Oil price shocks and GCC capital markets: who drives whom?," MPRA Paper 56993, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Marei Elbadri & Eralp Bektaş, 2022. "Dynamic relationship among the bank stability, oil, and gold prices: Evidence from the Islamic banks operating in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 2153-2168, April.
    20. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-080 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. M-Ali Sotoudeh & Andrew C. Worthington, 2016. "A comparative analysis of monetary responses to global oil price changes: net oil producing vs. net oil consuming countries," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 13(4), pages 623-640, October.
    22. Ebru Caglayan Akay & Sinem Guler Kangalli Uyar, 2016. "Determining the Functional Form of Relationships between Oil Prices and Macroeconomic Variables: The Case of Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea, Turkey Countries," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(3), pages 880-891.
    23. Sharma, Susan Sunila & Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Iyke, Bernard, 2019. "Do oil prices predict Indonesian macroeconomy?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 2-12.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jijfss:v:11:y:2023:i:4:p:143-:d:1295107. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.