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Central Bank Reserves and the Yield Curve at the ZLB

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  • Mirkov, Nikola

    ()

  • Sutter, Barbara

    ()

Abstract

With short term interest rates bounded at zero, monetary policy has aimed at affecting the yield curve at the longer end during the recent years. As the recent literature has shown, the quantitative easing programs conducted by the Federal reserve have significantly lowered long-term yields. This paper adds central bank reserves as a fourth factor to an affine term structure model to estimate the effect of quantitative easing on the yield curve. The cumulative effect on 10-year Treasury securities during the zero lower bound period is estimated to amount to 85 basis points. Of the total effect, one quarter is shown to be due to the liquidity effect and three quarters to the supply effect. To disentangle the two effects, the estimates for the US are compared to estimates for Swiss data because the Swiss national bank did not engage in any government bond purchases.

Suggested Citation

  • Mirkov, Nikola & Sutter, Barbara, 2012. "Central Bank Reserves and the Yield Curve at the ZLB," Working Papers on Finance 1208, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    • Handle: RePEc:usg:sfwpfi:2012:08
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    File URL: http://ux-tauri.unisg.ch/RePEc/usg/sfwpfi/WPF-1208.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jardet, Caroline & Monfort, Alain & Pegoraro, Fulvio, 2013. "No-arbitrage Near-Cointegrated VAR(p) term structure models, term premia and GDP growth," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 389-402.
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    5. Signe Krogstrup & Samuel Reynard & Barbara Sutter, 2012. "Liquidity Effects of Quantitative Easing on Long-Term Interest Rates," Working Papers 2012-02, Swiss National Bank.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Yield curve; zero lower bound; liquidity effect; reserves; Bayesian MCMC.;

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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