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A Test for the Presence of Central Bank Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market With an Application to the Bank of Canada

  • Douglas James Hodgson

We propose a general non-linear simultaneous equations framework for the econometric analysis of models of intervention in foreign exchange markets by central banks in response to deviations of exchange rates from target levels. We consider the instrumental variables estimation of possibly non-linear response functions and tests of intervention when the functional form may be non-linear, asymmetric, and may contain unknown shape parameters. The methodology applies techniques developed for testing in the presence of nuisance parameters unidentified under a null hypothesis to a nonlinear simultaneous equations model. We report the results of an empirical analysis of activity of the Bank of Canada, for the period from 1953-2006, with regard to the Canada-U.S. exchange rate, with changes in foreign reserves proxying for intervention activity. Nous proposons un cadre de référence général pour les équations non-linéaires simultanées s'appliquant à l'analyse économétrique de modèles d'intervention des banques centrales dans les marchés des devises étrangères, en réponse aux écarts des taux de change par rapport aux niveaux cibles. Nous prenons en considération l'estimation des variables instrumentales liées aux fonctions de réponses possiblement non-linéaires et aux tests en matière d'interventions lorsque la forme fonctionnelle peut être non linéaire, asymétrique et lorsqu'elle peut contenir des paramètres de forme inconnue. La méthodologie applique, à un modèle à équations simultanées non linéaires, des techniques élaborées pour effectuer des tests en présence de paramètres de nuisance non identifiés sous une hypothèse nulle. Nous présentons les résultats d'une analyse empirique des activités de la Banque du Canada, durant la période de 1953-2006, relativement au taux de change Canada-É.-U., les variations des réserves étrangères permettant les activités d'intervention.

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Paper provided by CIRANO in its series CIRANO Working Papers with number 2009s-14.

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Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: 01 Apr 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cir:cirwor:2009s-14
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  1. Almekinders, Geert J. & Eijffinger, Sylvester C. W., 1996. "A friction model of daily Bundesbank and Federal Reserve intervention," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(8), pages 1365-1380, September.
  2. Eijffinger, S.C.W., 1991. "Empirical evidence on foreign exchange market intervention : Where do we stand?," Other publications TiSEM e280156a-07fa-4c3e-aa4f-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  3. repec:ner:tilbur:urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-152907 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Donald W.K. Andrews & Werner Ploberger, 1992. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only Under the Alternative," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1015, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  5. Rogers, J. M. & Siklos, P. L., 2003. "Foreign exchange market intervention in two small open economies: the Canadian and Australian experience," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 393-416, June.
  6. Longworth, David, 1980. "Canadian Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: A Note," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 62(2), pages 284-87, May.
  7. repec:ner:tilbur:urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-73527 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Hamilton, James D, 2001. "A Parametric Approach to Flexible Nonlinear Inference," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(3), pages 537-73, May.
  9. Hansen, B.E., 1991. "Inference when a Nuisance Parameter is Not Identified Under the Null Hypothesis," RCER Working Papers 296, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  10. J. A. Hausman, 1976. "Specification Tests in Econometrics," Working papers 185, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  11. Newey, Whitney K, 1990. "Semiparametric Efficiency Bounds," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(2), pages 99-135, April-Jun.
  12. Gartner, Manfred, 1987. "Intervention Policy under Floating Exchange Rates: An Analysis of the Swiss Case," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 54(216), pages 439-53, November.
  13. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1980. "Exchange Rate Economics: Where Do We Stand?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 11(1, Tenth ), pages 143-206.
  14. Bryan W. Brown & Douglas J. Hodgson, 2007. "Semiparametric efficiency bounds in dynamic non-linear systems under elliptical symmetry," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 10(1), pages 35-48, 03.
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