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Another Look at the Interaction Between Oil Price Uncertainty and Exchange Rate Volatility: The Case of Small Open Economies

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  • Selmi, Refk
  • Bouoiyour, Jamal
  • Ayachi, Fethi

Abstract

Several studies considered oil price as exchange rate determinants. The novelty of our paper is to test if the lagged oil price are statistically significant predictors of Moroccan and Tunisian exchange rate. We consider a stricter GARCH specifications (linear versus nonlinear, symmetric versus asymmetric, power versus level shift) to verify whether lagged rather contemporaneous oil price have a predictive content for future exchange rates. Our results show that the effects of shoks to oil price can immediately translate in changes in exchange rates and are short-lived in Morocco and long-lived in Tunisia. This linkage reacts more to good news than bad news in Morocco and conversly for Tunisian case. Additionally, establish an unstable interaction between the considered variables across all estimates with preponderence of the effect of switching regime effect (threashold and level shift).

Suggested Citation

  • Selmi, Refk & Bouoiyour, Jamal & Ayachi, Fethi, 2012. "Another Look at the Interaction Between Oil Price Uncertainty and Exchange Rate Volatility: The Case of Small Open Economies," MPRA Paper 49144, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Oct 2012.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:49144
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/49144/1/MPRA_paper_49144.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Domenico Ferraro & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Barbara Rossi, 2011. "Can oil prices forecast exchange rates?," Working Papers 11-34, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    2. Rautava, Jouko, 2004. "The role of oil prices and the real exchange rate in Russia's economy--a cointegration approach," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 315-327, June.
    3. Tim Bollerslev, 2008. "Glossary to ARCH (GARCH)," CREATES Research Papers 2008-49, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    4. Huang, Bwo-Nung & Hwang, M.J. & Peng, Hsiao-Ping, 2005. "The asymmetry of the impact of oil price shocks on economic activities: An application of the multivariate threshold model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 455-476, May.
    5. Zakoian, Jean-Michel, 1994. "Threshold heteroskedastic models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 931-955, September.
    6. Henriques, Irene & Sadorsky, Perry, 2008. "Oil prices and the stock prices of alternative energy companies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 998-1010, May.
    7. Tully, Edel & Lucey, Brian M., 2007. "A power GARCH examination of the gold market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 316-325, June.
    8. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema & Prasad, Arti, 2008. "Understanding the oil price-exchange rate nexus for the Fiji islands," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2686-2696, September.
    9. Ghosh, Sajal, 2011. "Examining crude oil price - Exchange rate nexus for India during the period of extreme oil price volatility," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(5), pages 1886-1889, May.
    10. Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-248, April.
    11. Brooks, Robert D. & Faff, Robert W. & McKenzie, Michael D. & Mitchell, Heather, 2000. "A multi-country study of power ARCH models and national stock market returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 377-397, June.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk, 2013. "The controversial link between exchange rate volatility and exports: Evidence from Tunisian case," MPRA Paper 49133, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Mar 2013.
    2. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Mutascu, Mihai Ioan & Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu, 2013. "The influence of the international oil prices on the real effective exchange rate in Romania in a wavelet transform framework," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 714-733.
    3. Zied Ftiti & Aviral Tiwari & Ibrahim Fatnassi, 2014. "Oil price and macroeconomy in India – An evolutionary cospectral coherence approach," Working Papers 2014-68, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    4. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2015. "The nexus between oil price and Russia's real exchange rate: Better paths via unconditional vs conditional analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 54-66.
    5. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-068 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Jamal BOUOIYOUR & Refk SELMI & Muhammad SHAHBAZ & Aviral Kumar TIWARI, 2014. "The Nexus between Oil price and Russia’s Real Exchange rate: Better Paths via Unconditional vs Conditional Analysis," Working Papers 2014-2015_4, CATT - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour, revised Sep 2014.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil price; exchange rate; volatility; GARCH specifications.;

    JEL classification:

    • C4 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics
    • F0 - International Economics - - General
    • F00 - International Economics - - General - - - General

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