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Relationship between the benchmark interest rate and a macroeconomic indicator

Author

Listed:
  • Duan, Qihong
  • Wei, Ying
  • Chen, Zhiping

Abstract

A Poisson process with stochastic intensity is utilized to model changes of a benchmark interest rate set by a Central Bank. We propose explicit formulas for estimators of parameters and the expectation of the intensity, based on observations of the process. Through comparing the intensity and an economic indicator, we can explore the pattern of the benchmark interest rate. Two empirical datasets are studied and the results reveal similarities and differences between the behavior and the goals of Central Banks.

Suggested Citation

  • Duan, Qihong & Wei, Ying & Chen, Zhiping, 2014. "Relationship between the benchmark interest rate and a macroeconomic indicator," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 220-226.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:38:y:2014:i:c:p:220-226
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2014.01.002
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    Cited by:

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    2. Cao, Guangxi & Jiang, Min & He, LingYun, 2018. "Comparative analysis of grey detrended fluctuation analysis methods based on empirical research on China’s interest rate market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 506(C), pages 156-169.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Benchmark interest rate; Macroeconomic indicator; Poisson process; Stochastic intensity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

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