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Stabilization policies in Argentina: an analysis from the perspective of inflation uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Erica Fellinger Jusué
  • Tomás Mancha Navarro

Abstract

In understanding the Argentinean inflationary experience, one can identify the floowing economic causes: the structure of the economy, the fiscal deficit and the specific characteristics of the implemented stabilization programs. From 1948 until 2005 all administrations had to pursue at least one stabilization program. This paper identifies the timinig of the implemented programs, the main instruments used to achieve price stability and the consequences these programs had on the evolution of inflation uncertainty. The objective is to test wether inflation uncertainty rose as the inconsistencies of the stabilization programs became apparent and, thus, the programs came to an end. The estimation of the unobservable inflation uncertainty is based on running Markov-Switching Models. This class of models can identify heterokedastic behaviors as well as changes of the level of inflation for different states of the economy. In this paper the monthly inflation level defines the states. The initial sucess of the different programs tended to disappear rapidly, therefore reducing the confidence of economic agents.

Suggested Citation

  • Erica Fellinger Jusué & Tomás Mancha Navarro, 2008. "Stabilization policies in Argentina: an analysis from the perspective of inflation uncertainty," Working Papers 04/08, Instituto Universitario de Análisis Económico y Social.
  • Handle: RePEc:uae:wpaper:0408
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Heymann, Daniel, 2000. "Políticas de reforma y comportamiento macroeconómico," Sede de la CEPAL en Santiago (Estudios e Investigaciones) 31568, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    2. Kim, Chang-Jin & Nelson, Charles R. & Startz, Richard, 1998. "Testing for mean reversion in heteroskedastic data based on Gibbs-sampling-augmented randomization1," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 131-154, June.
    3. Aghion, Philippe & Saint-Paul, Gilles, 1991. "On the Virtue of Bad Times: An Analysis of the Interaction between Economic Fluctuations and Productivity Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 578, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Goldfeld, Stephen M. & Quandt, Richard E., 1973. "A Markov model for switching regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 3-15, March.
    5. Heymann, Daniel, 2000. "Políticas de reforma y comportamiento macroeconómico: la Argentina en los noventa," Series Históricas 61, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    6. Heymann, Daniel, 1986. "Tres ensayos sobre inflación y políticas de estabilización," Oficina de la CEPAL en Buenos Aires (Estudios e Investigaciones) 28518, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
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