Stabilization policies in Argentina: an analysis from the perspective of inflation uncertainty
In understanding the Argentinean inflationary experience, one can identify the floowing economic causes: the structure of the economy, the fiscal deficit and the specific characteristics of the implemented stabilization programs. From 1948 until 2005 all administrations had to pursue at least one stabilization program. This paper identifies the timinig of the implemented programs, the main instruments used to achieve price stability and the consequences these programs had on the evolution of inflation uncertainty. The objective is to test wether inflation uncertainty rose as the inconsistencies of the stabilization programs became apparent and, thus, the programs came to an end. The estimation of the unobservable inflation uncertainty is based on running Markov-Switching Models. This class of models can identify heterokedastic behaviors as well as changes of the level of inflation for different states of the economy. In this paper the monthly inflation level defines the states. The initial sucess of the different programs tended to disappear rapidly, therefore reducing the confidence of economic agents.
|Date of creation:||Apr 2008|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Plaza de la Victoria, 2 C.P. 28802, Alcalá de Henares|
Phone: (00 34) 91 885 52 25
Fax: (00 34) 91 885 52 21
Web page: http://www.iaes.es
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Goldfeld, Stephen M. & Quandt, Richard E., 1973. "A Markov model for switching regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 3-15, March.
- Kim, Chang-Jin & Nelson, Charles R. & Startz, Richard, 1998. "Testing for mean reversion in heteroskedastic data based on Gibbs-sampling-augmented randomization1," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 131-154, June.
- Heymann, Daniel, 2000. "Políticas de reforma y comportamiento macroeconómico," Sede de la CEPAL en Santiago (Estudios e Investigaciones) 31568, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
- Aghion, Philippe & Saint-Paul, Gilles, 1991.
"On the Virtue of Bad Times: An Analysis of the Interaction between Economic Fluctuations and Productivity Growth,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
578, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Aghion, P. & Saint-Paul, G., 1991. "On The Virtue of Bad Times: An Analysis of the Interaction Between Economic Fluctuations and Productivity Growth," DELTA Working Papers 91-23, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
- Heymann, Daniel, 1986. "Tres ensayos sobre inflación y políticas de estabilización," Oficina de la CEPAL en Buenos Aires (Estudios e Investigaciones) 28518, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:uae:wpaper:0408. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Laura Suarez)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.