Stabilization policies in Argentina: an analysis from the perspective of inflation uncertainty
In understanding the Argentinean inflationary experience, one can identify the floowing economic causes: the structure of the economy, the fiscal deficit and the specific characteristics of the implemented stabilization programs. From 1948 until 2005 all administrations had to pursue at least one stabilization program. This paper identifies the timinig of the implemented programs, the main instruments used to achieve price stability and the consequences these programs had on the evolution of inflation uncertainty. The objective is to test wether inflation uncertainty rose as the inconsistencies of the stabilization programs became apparent and, thus, the programs came to an end. The estimation of the unobservable inflation uncertainty is based on running Markov-Switching Models. This class of models can identify heterokedastic behaviors as well as changes of the level of inflation for different states of the economy. In this paper the monthly inflation level defines the states. The initial sucess of the different programs tended to disappear rapidly, therefore reducing the confidence of economic agents.
|Date of creation:||Apr 2008|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Plaza de la Victoria, 2 C.P. 28802, Alcalá de Henares|
Phone: (00 34) 91 885 52 25
Fax: (00 34) 91 885 52 21
Web page: http://www.iaes.es
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Heymann, Daniel, 2000. "Políticas de reforma y comportamiento macroeconómico," Sede de la CEPAL en Santiago (Estudios e Investigaciones) 31568, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
- Kim, Chang-Jin & Nelson, Charles R. & Startz, Richard, 1998. "Testing for mean reversion in heteroskedastic data based on Gibbs-sampling-augmented randomization1," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 131-154, June.
- Aghion, Philippe & Saint-Paul, Gilles, 1991.
"On the Virtue of Bad Times: An Analysis of the Interaction between Economic Fluctuations and Productivity Growth,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
578, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Aghion, P. & Saint-Paul, G., 1991. "On The Virtue of Bad Times: An Analysis of the Interaction Between Economic Fluctuations and Productivity Growth," DELTA Working Papers 91-23, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
- Goldfeld, Stephen M. & Quandt, Richard E., 1973. "A Markov model for switching regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 3-15, March.
- Heymann, Daniel, 1986. "Tres ensayos sobre inflación y políticas de estabilización," Oficina de la CEPAL en Buenos Aires (Estudios e Investigaciones) 28518, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL). Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:uae:wpaper:0408. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Laura Suarez)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.