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Is IPO Underperformance a Peso Problem?

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  • Andrew Ang
  • Li Gu
  • Yael V. Hochberg

Abstract

Recent studies suggest that the underperformance of IPOs in the post-1970 sample may be a small sample effect or "Peso" problem. That is, IPO underperformance may result from observing too few star performers ex-post than were expected ex-ante. We develop a model of IPO performance that captures this intuition by allowing returns to be drawn from mixtures of outstanding, benchmark, or poor performing states. We estimate the model under the null of no ex-ante average IPO underperformance and construct small sample distributions of various statistics measuring IPO relative performance. We find that small sample biases are extremely unlikely to account for the magnitude of the post-1970 IPO underperformance observed in data.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Ang & Li Gu & Yael V. Hochberg, 2006. "Is IPO Underperformance a Peso Problem?," NBER Working Papers 12203, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12203
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    Cited by:

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    2. Glenn Boyle & Gerald Ward, 2016. "Do Better Informed Investors Always Do Better?," Working Papers in Economics 16/29, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    3. Chi, Jing & McWha, Matthew & Young, Martin, 2010. "The performance and the survivorship of New Zealand IPOs," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 172-180, June.
    4. Nilabhra Bhattacharya & Elizabeth Demers & Philip Joos, 2010. "The Relevance of Accounting Information in a Stock Market Bubble: Evidence from Internet IPOs," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(3‐4), pages 291-321, April.
    5. Liu, Jianlei & Uchida, Konari & Gao, Ruidong, 2012. "Political connections and the long-term stock performance of Chinese IPOs," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 814-833.
    6. Malcolm P. Baker & Ryan Taliaferro & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2004. "Pseudo Market Timing and Predictive Regressions," NBER Working Papers 10823, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. de la Parra, I. & Muñoz, M. & Lorenzo, E. & García, M. & Marcos, J. & Martínez-Moreno, F., 2017. "PV performance modelling: A review in the light of quality assurance for large PV plants," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 780-797.
    8. Seung‐Doo Choi & Inmoo Lee & William Megginson, 2010. "Do Privatization IPOs Outperform in the Long Run?," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 39(1), pages 153-185, March.
    9. William Quinn, 2019. "Squeezing the bears: cornering risk and limits on arbitrage during the ‘British bicycle mania’, 1896–8," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 72(4), pages 1286-1311, November.
    10. Nilabhra Bhattacharya & Elizabeth Demers & Philip Joos, 2010. "The Relevance of Accounting Information in a Stock Market Bubble: Evidence from Internet IPOs," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(3-4), pages 291-321.
    11. Malcolm Baker & Richard S. Ruback & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2004. "Behavioral Corporate Finance: A Survey," NBER Working Papers 10863, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Massimo Guidolin, 2013. "Markov switching models in asset pricing research," Chapters, in: Adrian R. Bell & Chris Brooks & Marcel Prokopczuk (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Finance, chapter 1, pages 3-44, Edward Elgar Publishing.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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