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Do IPOs Underperform in the Long-Run? New Evidence from the Canadian Stock Market

  • Maher Kooli
  • Jean-François L'Her
  • Jean-Marc Suret
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    We measure the long-run performance of 141 Canadian IPOs between 1986 and 2000, using continuously rebalanced and purged control portfolios (size and book-to-market ratios). Results remain relatively similar irrespective of whether we use an event-time approach (buy-and-hold abnormal returns and cumulative abnormal returns) or a calendar-time approach (mean calendar-time abnormal returns and alphas from the Fama-French three-factor pricing model). However, results do differ significantly whether we use equally-weighted (EW) or value-weighted (VW) portfolios. More specifically, we find significant overperformance when EW portfolios are formed, while no significant outperformance is found when VW portfolios are constructed. As we attempt to explain the long-run performance of Canadian IPOs, we find that financial and underpriced IPOs as well as those in growth sectors outperform in the long-run, and that analysts' long-term growth forecasts are informative of the a firm's future performance Nous mesurons dans la présente étude la performance des 141 émissions initiales effectuées au Canada de 1986 à 2000. Nous utilisons des portefeuilles de contrôle qui sont systématiquement rééquilibrés et réajustés pour les titres délistés, et qui ne tiennent compte des caractéristiques de taille et de ratio Book to Market. Les résultats varient peu suivant la méthode utilisée, qu'il s'agisse de la technique passive, des rendements anormaux cumulés en rendements calendaires (Calendar Time) ou non. Les coefficients alpha d'un modèle à trois facteurs inspirés de Fama et French sont utilisés également, sans différences notables. Toutefois, les résultats diffèrent fortement suivant le mode de pondération des portefeuilles. Nous mettons en évidence une sur performance lorsque des portefeuilles équipondérés sont formés, et une sous performance non significative lorsque des portefeuilles pondérés par la valeur boursière sont utilisés. Il semble que les émissions de sociétés financières, ainsi que celles qui appartiennent à des secteurs en croissance aient des performances supérieures à long terme. Les prévisions à long terme des analystes financiers ont une valeur informative quant aux performances futures des émissions initiales.

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    File URL: http://www.cirano.qc.ca/files/publications/2003s-16.pdf
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    Paper provided by CIRANO in its series CIRANO Working Papers with number 2003s-16.

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    Length: 41 pages
    Date of creation: 01 Apr 2003
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:cir:cirwor:2003s-16
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