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The Aftermarket Performance of Initial Public Offerings in Canada

  • Maher Kooli
  • Jean-Marc Suret
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    In this paper, we empirically investigate Canadian initial public offerings (IPOs) to provide one case on the international evidence on the long-run performance of IPOs. Specifically, we examine whether the choice of a performance measurement methodology directly determines both the size and power of statistical test, as documented in previous studies (Mitchell and Stafford, 2000; Loughran and Ritter, 2000; and Brav, Geczy and Gompers, 2000). Our sample consists of 445 IPOs between January 1991 and December 1998. Using cumulative abnormal returns as an abnormal performance measure, we find that the Canadian IPOs underperform significantly the sample of seasoned firms with the same market capitalization. More specifically, the 3 year and the 5 year underperformances estimated on value weighted (VW) basis are statistically significant. Moreover, using the buy-and hold returns as an alternative measurement for long-run performance, we find that investors who buy immediately after listing and hold shares for five years will make a loss of 24,66%, on equally weighted (EW) basis (15,16% on VW basis) relative to an investment in the control firms. Using the calendar-time returns method, we find that the 5 years underperformance is 25,6% on EW basis (19,22% on VW basis). We have entertained a number of possible explanations for the poor subsequent performance of issuing firms. While, the fads or investor's overreactions and divergence of opinions hypotheses do not apply in explaining the aftermarket performance of Canadian IPOs, our evidence is consistent with the hot issue market story. La présente étude contribue à l'analyse internationale de la performance à long terme des émissions initiales, menée dans différents pays, en analysant les émissions canadiennes de la période 1992-1998. Nous examinons en particulier dans quelle mesure le choix des mesures de performance influence à la fois l'amplitude des résultats et la puissance des tests statistiques, comme l'affirment plusieurs auteurs tels Mitchell and Stafford (2000), Loughran and Ritter (2000) ainsi que Brav, Geczy et Gompers (2000). L'échantillon inclut 445 émissions initiales réalisées entre0101 1991 et1101 1991. Lorsque la méthode des résidus cumulés est utilisée pour mesurer la performance anormale, nous observons que les émissions initiales canadiennes ont une performance significativement inférieure à celle d'entreprises pairées, de taille semblable qui n'ont pas procédé à des émissions. Les résidus moyens pondérés calculés après 3 ou 5 ans sont négatifs lorsque ces rendements sont pondérés par les valeurs des produits bruts. L'effet n'est donc pas imputable uniquement aux petites émissions. Lorsque la méthode de la détention passive est utilisée, nous estimons la perte de richesses des acquéreur des émissions qui les détiennent pendant 5 ans à 24,66% de leur richesse initiale. L'examen des facteurs explicatifs de la performance à moyen et long terme semble confirmer l'hypothèse des fenêtres d'opportunité, alors que les hypothèses basées sur l'irrationalité ou la sur réaction ne semblent pas confirmées.

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    File URL: http://www.cirano.qc.ca/files/publications/2001s-52.pdf
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    Paper provided by CIRANO in its series CIRANO Working Papers with number 2001s-52.

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    Length: 39 pages
    Date of creation: 01 Sep 2001
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:cir:cirwor:2001s-52
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