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Real Options with Priced Regime-Switching Risk

  • John Driffill
  • Martin Sola


  • Turalay Kenc

e develop a model of regime-switching risk premia as well as regimedependent factor risk premia to price real options. The model incorporates the observation that the underlying risky income streams of real options are subject to discrete shifts over time as well as random changes. The presence of discrete shifts is due to systematic and unsystematic risk associated with changes in business cycles or in economic policy regimes or events such as takeovers, major changes in business plans. We analyze the impact of regimeswitching behavior on the valuation of projects and investment opportunities. We find that accounting for Markov switching risk results in a delay in the expected timing of the investment while the regime-specific factor risk premia make the possibility of a regime shift more pronounced.

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Paper provided by Universidad Torcuato Di Tella in its series Department of Economics Working Papers with number 2009-09.

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Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:udt:wpecon:2009-09
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  1. Naik, Vasanttilak, 1993. " Option Valuation and Hedging Strategies with Jumps in the Volatility of Asset Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1969-84, December.
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  3. Merton, Robert C., 1975. "Option pricing when underlying stock returns are discontinuous," Working papers 787-75., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  4. Cecchetti, Stephen G & Lam, Pok-sang & Mark, Nelson C, 1990. "Mean Reversion in Equilibrium Asset Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 398-418, June.
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  8. Qiang Dai & Kenneth Singleton, 2003. "Term Structure Dynamics in Theory and Reality," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(3), pages 631-678, July.
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  10. Shu Wu & Yong Zeng, 2005. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates under Regime Shifts and Jumps," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 200520, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2005.
  11. Driffill, John & Sola, Martin, 1998. "Intrinsic bubbles and regime-switching," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 357-373, July.
  12. Kevin A. Hassett & Gilbert E. Metcalf, 1998. "Investment With Uncertain Tax Policy: Does Random Tax Policy Discourage Investment?," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 9823, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
  13. repec:tpr:qjecon:v:101:y:1986:i:4:p:707-27 is not listed on IDEAS
  14. Veronesi, Pietro, 1999. "Stock Market Overreaction to Bad News in Good Times: A Rational Expectations Equilibrium Model," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(5), pages 975-1007.
  15. Mark Shackleton & Rafal Wojakowski, 2002. "The Expected Return and Exercise Time of Merton-style Real Options," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(3&4), pages 541-555.
  16. Driffill John & Raybaudi Marzia & Sola Martin, 2003. "Investment Under Uncertainty with Stochastically Switching Profit Streams: Entry and Exit over the Business Cycle," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-40, April.
  17. Marco Cagetti & Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas Sargent & Noah Williams, 2002. "Robustness and Pricing with Uncertain Growth," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(2), pages 363-404, March.
  18. Shu Wu & Yong Zeng, 2005. "A General Equilibrium Model Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates Under Regime-Switching Risk," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(07), pages 839-869.
  19. John Y. Campbell & John Cochrane, 1999. "Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(2), pages 205-251, April.
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