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Real Options with Priced Regime-Switching Risk

  • John Driffill
  • Martin Sola

    ()

  • Turalay Kenc

e develop a model of regime-switching risk premia as well as regimedependent factor risk premia to price real options. The model incorporates the observation that the underlying risky income streams of real options are subject to discrete shifts over time as well as random changes. The presence of discrete shifts is due to systematic and unsystematic risk associated with changes in business cycles or in economic policy regimes or events such as takeovers, major changes in business plans. We analyze the impact of regimeswitching behavior on the valuation of projects and investment opportunities. We find that accounting for Markov switching risk results in a delay in the expected timing of the investment while the regime-specific factor risk premia make the possibility of a regime shift more pronounced.

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Paper provided by Universidad Torcuato Di Tella in its series Department of Economics Working Papers with number 2009-09.

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Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:udt:wpecon:2009-09
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.utdt.edu/ver_contenido.php?id_contenido=439&id_item_menu=568
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  1. Wu, Shu & Zeng, Yong, 2006. "The term structure of interest rates under regime shifts and jumps," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 215-221, November.
  2. Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2005. "What Explains the Stock Market's Reaction to Federal Reserve Policy?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1221-1257, 06.
  3. Kevin A. Hassett & Gilbert E. Metcalf, 1998. "Investment With Uncertain Tax Policy: Does Random Tax Policy Discourage Investment?," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 9823, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
  4. Naik, Vasanttilak, 1993. " Option Valuation and Hedging Strategies with Jumps in the Volatility of Asset Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1969-84, December.
  5. Qiang Dai & Kenneth Singleton, 2003. "Term Structure Dynamics in Theory and Reality," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(3), pages 631-678, July.
  6. Guo, Xin & Miao, Jianjun & Morellec, Erwan, 2005. "Irreversible investment with regime shifts," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 37-59, May.
  7. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Pok-sang Lam & Nelson C. Mark, 1988. "Mean Reversion in Equilibrium Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 2762, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Yong Zeng & Shu Wu, 2004. "A General Equilibrium Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates under Regime-switching Risk," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 304, Econometric Society.
  9. Abel, Andrew B & Blanchard, Olivier J, 1986. "The Present Value of Profits and Cyclical Movements in Investment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(2), pages 249-73, March.
  10. Marco antonio Bonomo & Rene Garcia, 1992. "Consumption and equilibrium asset pricing: An empirical assessment," Textos para discuss√£o 284, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
  11. Veronesi, Pietro, 1999. "Stock Market Overreaction to Bad News in Good Times: A Rational Expectations Equilibrium Model," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(5), pages 975-1007.
  12. Merton, Robert C., 1976. "Option pricing when underlying stock returns are discontinuous," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 125-144.
  13. Driffill John & Raybaudi Marzia & Sola Martin, 2003. "Investment Under Uncertainty with Stochastically Switching Profit Streams: Entry and Exit over the Business Cycle," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-40, April.
  14. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  15. John Y. Campbell & John Cochrane, 1999. "Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(2), pages 205-251, April.
  16. McDonald, Robert & Siegel, Daniel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 101(4), pages 707-27, November.
  17. Marco Cagetti & Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas Sargent & Noah Williams, 2002. "Robustness and Pricing with Uncertain Growth," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(2), pages 363-404, March.
  18. Driffill, John & Sola, Martin, 1998. "Intrinsic bubbles and regime-switching," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 357-373, July.
  19. Mark Shackleton & Rafal Wojakowski, 2002. "The Expected Return and Exercise Time of Merton-style Real Options," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(3&4), pages 541-555.
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