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A General Equilibrium Model Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates Under Regime-Switching Risk

Author

Listed:
  • SHU WU

    (Department of Economics at The University of Kansas, Summerfield Hall 213, Lawrence, KS 66045, USA)

  • YONG ZENG

    (Department of Mathematics and Statistics at University of Missouri at Kansas City, Kansas City, MO 64110, USA)

Abstract

This paper develops a general equilibrium model of the term structure of interest rates in the presence of the systematic risk of regime shifts. The model elucidates the economic nature of the regime-shift risk premium and introduces a new source of time-variation in bond returns. A closed-form solution for the term structure of interest rates is obtained under an affine model using log-linear approximation. The model is estimated by Efficient Method of Moments. The regime-switching risk is found to be statistically significant and mostly affect the long-end of the yield curve.

Suggested Citation

  • Shu Wu & Yong Zeng, 2005. "A General Equilibrium Model Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates Under Regime-Switching Risk," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(07), pages 839-869.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:ijtafx:v:08:y:2005:i:07:n:s0219024905003323
    DOI: 10.1142/S0219024905003323
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    Cited by:

    1. John Driffill & Turalay Kenc & Martin Sola, 2013. "Real Options With Priced Regime-Switching Risk," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 16(05), pages 1-30.
    2. Liu Xiangdong & Li Xianglong & Zheng Shaozhi & Qian Hangyong, 2020. "PMCMC for Term Structure of Interest Rates under Markov Regime Switching and Jumps," Journal of Systems Science and Information, De Gruyter, vol. 8(2), pages 159-169, April.
    3. Monfort, A. & Pegoraro, F., 2007. "Switching VARMA Term Structure Models - Extended Version," Working papers 191, Banque de France.
    4. Hidenori Futami, 2009. "Multi-factor Affine Term Structure Model with Single Regime Shift: Real Term Structure under Zero Interest Rate," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 16(4), pages 347-369, December.
    5. Hoi Wong & Tsz Wong, 2007. "Reduced-form Models with Regime Switching: An Empirical Analysis for Corporate Bonds," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 14(3), pages 229-253, September.
    6. Wu, Shu & Zeng, Yong, 2006. "The term structure of interest rates under regime shifts and jumps," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 215-221, November.
    7. Samuel Chege Maina, 2011. "Credit Risk Modelling in Markovian HJM Term Structure Class of Models with Stochastic Volatility," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 1-2011.
    8. Renne, Jean-Paul, 2013. "Regime switching in bond yield and spread dynamics," Economics Thesis from University Paris Dauphine, Paris Dauphine University, number 123456789/13651 edited by Monfort, Alain.
    9. Robert J. Elliott & Tak Kuen Siu, 2016. "Pricing regime-switching risk in an HJM interest rate environment," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(12), pages 1791-1800, December.
    10. Shen, Yang & Siu, Tak Kuen, 2013. "Pricing bond options under a Markovian regime-switching Hull–White model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 933-940.
    11. Issouf Soumaré & Ernest Tafolong, 2017. "Risk-based capital for credit insurers with business cycles and dynamic leverage," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(4), pages 597-612, April.
    12. Samuel Chege Maina, 2011. "Credit Risk Modelling in Markovian HJM Term Structure Class of Models with Stochastic Volatility," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 5, July-Dece.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Term structure; general equilibrium; Markov regime shifts;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

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