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Deutsche Konjunktur: leichte Rezession absehbar

  • Boss, Alfred
  • Dovern, Jonas
  • Meier, Carsten-Patrick
  • Scheide, Joachim

Die deutsche Wirtschaft bekommt die Auswirkungen der krisenhaften Entwicklungen im Rest der Welt zu spüren. Sowohl die Daten für Nachfrage und Produktion als auch wichtige Stimmungsindikatoren weisen deutlich nach unten. Zwar dürfte die Konjunktur in Deutschland weniger stark an Schwung einbüßen als in manchen anderen großen Ländern, wo die wirtschaftlichen Übersteigerungen in den vergangenen Jahren ausgeprägter waren. Ein leichter Rückgang der Produktion in den kommenden Monaten ist gleichwohl wahrscheinlich. Wir revidieren unsere Prognose für den Anstieg des realen Bruttoinlandsprodukts im laufenden Jahr von 2,1 Prozent auf 1,9 Prozent. Für das Jahr 2009 erwarten wir eine Zunahme um nur noch 0,2 Prozent (Juni: 1,0 Prozent).

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Paper provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) in its series Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy with number 28638.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkie:28638
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  1. Boss, Alfred & Rosenschon, Astrid, 2008. "Der Kieler Subventionsbericht: eine Aktualisierung," Kiel Discussion Papers 452/453, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  2. Henri Nyberg, 2010. "Dynamic probit models and financial variables in recession forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 215-230.
  3. Alfred Boss & Alessio J. G. Brown & Christian Merkl & Dennis Snower, 2007. "Einstellungsgutscheine: Konkrete Ausgestaltung für Deutschland," Kiel Working Papers 1327, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  4. Brown, Alessio J. G. & Merkl, Christian & Snower, Dennis J., 2007. "Comparing the Effectiveness of Employment Subsidies," IZA Discussion Papers 2835, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  5. Marcelle Chauvet & James D. Hamilton, 2005. "Dating Business Cycle Turning Points," NBER Working Papers 11422, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  7. Dennis Snower & Alessio Brown & Christian Merkl, 2007. "Einstellungsgutscheine effektiver als Kombilöhne," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 60(04), pages 37-41, 02.
  8. Alfred Boss & Achim Boss & Thomas Boss, 2008. "Der deutsche Einkommensteuertarif: Wieder eine Wachstumsbremse?," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 9(1), pages 102-124, 02.
  9. Dovern, Jonas & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & Oskamp, Frank & Sander, Birgit & Scheide, Joachim, 2007. "Weltkonjunktur verliert an Fahrt," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 4093, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  10. Beate Schirwitz, 2007. "Eine Chronik klassischer Konjunkturzyklen für Deutschland," ifo Dresden berichtet, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 14(05), pages 3-11, October.
  11. Dovern, Jonas & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Hogrefe, Jens & Scheide, Joachim, 2008. "Euroraum in der Rezession," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 28683, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  12. Dovern, Jonas & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & Van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim & Hogrefe, Jens & Boss, Alfred & Meier, Carsten-Patrick, 2008. "Weltkonjunktur und deutsche Konjunktur im Herbst 2008," Kiel Discussion Papers 456/457, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
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