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Deutsche Konjunktur: leichte Rezession absehbar

Author

Listed:
  • Boss, Alfred
  • Dovern, Jonas
  • Meier, Carsten-Patrick
  • Scheide, Joachim

Abstract

Die deutsche Wirtschaft bekommt die Auswirkungen der krisenhaften Entwicklungen im Rest der Welt zu spüren. Sowohl die Daten für Nachfrage und Produktion als auch wichtige Stimmungsindikatoren weisen deutlich nach unten. Zwar dürfte die Konjunktur in Deutschland weniger stark an Schwung einbüßen als in manchen anderen großen Ländern, wo die wirtschaftlichen Übersteigerungen in den vergangenen Jahren ausgeprägter waren. Ein leichter Rückgang der Produktion in den kommenden Monaten ist gleichwohl wahrscheinlich. Wir revidieren unsere Prognose für den Anstieg des realen Bruttoinlandsprodukts im laufenden Jahr von 2,1 Prozent auf 1,9 Prozent. Für das Jahr 2009 erwarten wir eine Zunahme um nur noch 0,2 Prozent (Juni: 1,0 Prozent).

Suggested Citation

  • Boss, Alfred & Dovern, Jonas & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & Scheide, Joachim, 2008. "Deutsche Konjunktur: leichte Rezession absehbar," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 28638, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkie:28638
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    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/28638/1/600698378.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Brown, Alessio J.G. & Merkl, Christian & Snower, Dennis J., 2011. "Comparing the effectiveness of employment subsidies," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 168-179, April.
    2. Dovern, Jonas & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & Oskamp, Frank & Sander, Birgit & Scheide, Joachim, 2007. "Weltkonjunktur verliert an Fahrt," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 4093, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    3. Dovern, Jonas & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & Van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim & Hogrefe, Jens & Boss, Alfred & Meier, Carsten-Patrick, 2008. "Weltkonjunktur und deutsche Konjunktur im Herbst 2008," Kiel Discussion Papers 456/457, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    4. Alfred Boss & Achim Boss & Thomas Boss, 2008. "Der deutsche Einkommensteuertarif: Wieder eine Wachstumsbremse?," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 9(1), pages 102-124, February.
    5. Boss, Alfred & Rosenschon, Astrid, 2008. "Der Kieler Subventionsbericht: eine Aktualisierung," Kiel Discussion Papers 452/453, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    6. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    7. Boss, Alfred & Brown, Alessio J. G. & Merkl, Christian & Snower, Dennis J., 2007. "Einstellungsgutscheine: Konkrete Ausgestaltung für Deutschland," Kiel Working Papers 1327, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    8. Beate Schirwitz, 2007. "Eine Chronik klassischer Konjunkturzyklen für Deutschland," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 14(05), pages 3-11, October.
    9. Henri Nyberg, 2010. "Dynamic probit models and financial variables in recession forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 215-230.
    10. Marcelle Chauvet & James D. Hamilton, 2005. "Dating Business Cycle Turning Points," NBER Working Papers 11422, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Dovern, Jonas & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Hogrefe, Jens & Scheide, Joachim, 2008. "Euroraum in der Rezession," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 28683, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    12. Dennis Snower & Alessio Brown & Christian Merkl, 2007. "Einstellungsgutscheine effektiver als Kombilöhne," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 60(04), pages 37-41, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dovern, Jonas & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Hogrefe, Jens & Scheide, Joachim, 2008. "Euroraum in der Rezession," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 28683, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    2. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & Van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Dovern, Jonas, 2009. "Weltkonjunktur und deutsche Konjunktur im Frühjahr 2009," Kiel Discussion Papers 461/462, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    3. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Dovern, Jonas & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim, 2009. "Konjunktureinbruch im Euroraum," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 28802, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    4. Dovern, Jonas & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & Scheide, Joachim & van Roye, Björn, 2008. "Weltwirtschaft im Abschwung," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 28829, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).

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