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Weltwirtschaft im Abschwung

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  • Dovern, Jonas
  • Gern, Klaus-Jürgen
  • Jannsen, Nils
  • Scheide, Joachim
  • van Roye, Björn

Abstract

Die Aussichten für die Weltkonjunktur haben sich in den vergangenen Monaten stark eingetrübt. Weltweit sind die Frühindikatoren auf Talfahrt. In einer Reihe von Industrieländern droht inzwischen sogar eine Rezession, und in vielen Schwellenländern deutet sich eine Phase schwächerer Konjunktur an. Die Inflation hat zwar voraussichtlich ihren Höhepunkt überschritten. Doch wird die Korrektur von Übersteigerungen im Immobilien- und im Finanzsektor vieler Länder, die sich nicht nur in den Vereinigten Staaten, sondern zunehmend auch in Europa vollzieht, die weltwirtschaftliche Entwicklung über längere Zeit belasten. Wir haben unsere Prognose für den Anstieg der Weltproduktion in den Jahren 2008 und 2009 im Vergleich zum Juni spürbar reduziert: Für das Jahr 2008 erwarten wir nun einen Zuwachs von 3,7 (Juni: 3,9) Prozent, für 2009 eine Abschwächung auf 3,3 (3,7) Prozent.

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  • Dovern, Jonas & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & Scheide, Joachim & van Roye, Björn, 2008. "Weltwirtschaft im Abschwung," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 28829, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkie:28829
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    1. Boss, Alfred & Dovern, Jonas & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & Scheide, Joachim, 2008. "Deutsche Konjunktur: leichte Rezession absehbar," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 28638, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Kamps, Christophe & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & Scheide, Joachim, 2004. "Verhaltener Aufschwung in Euroland," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 3215, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Dovern, Jonas & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & Van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim & Hogrefe, Jens & Boss, Alfred & Meier, Carsten-Patrick, 2008. "Weltkonjunktur und deutsche Konjunktur im Herbst 2008," Kiel Discussion Papers 456/457, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    4. Laaser, Claus-Friedrich, 2010. "Nutzerabhängige Verkehrsfinanzierung und räumliche Arbeitsteilung: Globale und raumwirtschaftliche Aspekte," Forschungs- und Sitzungsberichte der ARL: Aufsätze, in: Hesse, Markus (ed.), Neue Rahmenbedingungen, Herausforderungen und Strategien für die großräumige Verkehrsentwicklung, volume 127, pages 100-114, ARL – Akademie für Raumentwicklung in der Leibniz-Gemeinschaft.
    5. Dovern, Jonas & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Hogrefe, Jens & Scheide, Joachim, 2008. "Euroraum in der Rezession," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 28683, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    6. Laaser, Claus-Friedrich, 2010. "Nutzerabhängige Verkehrsfinanzierung und räumliche Arbeitsteilung: Globale und raumwirtschaftliche Aspekte," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 59901, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    7. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & Scheide, Joachim, 2009. "Weltwirtschaft expandiert wieder," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 32956, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    8. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Kamps, Christophe & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & Scheide, Joachim, 2004. "Moderate upswing in Euroland," Kiel Discussion Papers 410, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

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