IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bis/bisqtr/2403b.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Quo vadis, r*? The natural rate of interest after the pandemic

Author

Listed:
  • Gianluca Benigno
  • Boris Hofmann
  • Galo Nuño Barrau
  • Damiano Sandri

Abstract

Where is the natural rate of interest? How has it evolved? And where is it heading? In core advanced economies, several estimates of the natural rate have edged up. Shifts in the saving-investment balance and a more inflationary environment, which elicited a strong monetary policy response, may have been factors raising r* and perceptions thereof. The measurement of r* is, however, surrounded by very high uncertainty, making it a blurry guidepost for monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Gianluca Benigno & Boris Hofmann & Galo Nuño Barrau & Damiano Sandri, 2024. "Quo vadis, r*? The natural rate of interest after the pandemic," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:bisqtr:2403b
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2403b.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2403b.htm
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Etienne Gagnon & Benjamin K. Johannsen & David López-Salido, 2021. "Understanding the New Normal: The Role of Demographics," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 69(2), pages 357-390, June.
    2. Peter Hördahl & Oreste Tristani, 2014. "Inflation Risk Premia in the Euro Area and the United States," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(3), pages 1-47, September.
    3. Lukasz Rachel & Lawrence H. Summers, 2019. "On Secular Stagnation in the Industrialized World," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 50(1 (Spring), pages 1-76.
    4. Anil K Kashyap & Jeremy C. Stein, 2023. "Monetary Policy When the Central Bank Shapes Financial-Market Sentiment," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 37(1), pages 53-76, Winter.
    5. Boris Hofmann & Gert Peersman, 2024. "Monetary policy transmission and trade‐offs in the United States: Old and new," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(3), pages 253-278, December.
    6. Marx, Magali & Mojon, Benoît & Velde, François R., 2021. "Why have interest rates fallen far below the return on capital?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(S), pages 57-76.
    7. Holston, Kathryn & Laubach, Thomas & Williams, John C., 2017. "Measuring the natural rate of interest: International trends and determinants," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(S1), pages 59-75.
    8. Ricardo J. Caballero & Emmanuel Farhi & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 2017. "The Safe Assets Shortage Conundrum," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(3), pages 29-46, Summer.
    9. Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul & Fabian Winkler, 2021. "The natural rate of interest through a hall of mirrors," BIS Working Papers 974, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Thomas Laubach & John C. Williams, 2003. "Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1063-1070, November.
    11. James D. Hamilton & Ethan S. Harris & Jan Hatzius & Kenneth D. West, 2016. "The Equilibrium Real Funds Rate: Past, Present, and Future," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(4), pages 660-707, November.
    12. David R. Baqaee & Emmanuel Farhi & Kunal Sangani, 2024. "The Supply-Side Effects of Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 132(4), pages 1065-1112.
    13. Ryan Niladri Banerjee & Boris Hofmann, 2018. "The rise of zombie firms: causes and consequences," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    14. Claudio Borio, 2021. "Navigating by r*: safe or hazardous?," BIS Working Papers 982, Bank for International Settlements.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yudai Hatayama & Yuto Iwasaki & Kyoko Nakagami & Tatsuyoshi Okimoto, 2024. "Globalization and Its Growing Impact on the Natural Rates of Interest in Developed Economies," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 24-E-13, Bank of Japan.
    2. Bank for International Settlements, 2024. "Keeping the momentum:how finance can continue to support growth in EMEs," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 148.
    3. repec:ptu:bdpart:e202504 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Angeloni, Ignazio, 2024. "Assessing the ECB's monetary policy stance by comparing tightening cycles," SAFE White Paper Series 108, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    5. Alexandre Carvalho & José Miguel Cardoso da Costa & Joana Garcia & Sandra Gomes & Pedro Pires Ribeiro, 2025. "The ECB’s monetary policy strategy: from the 2021 review to the 2025 assessment," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Del Negro, Marco & Giannone, Domenico & Giannoni, Marc P. & Tambalotti, Andrea, 2019. "Global trends in interest rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 248-262.
    2. Glick, Reuven, 2020. "r* and the global economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    3. Marx, Magali & Mojon, Benoît & Velde, François R., 2021. "Why have interest rates fallen far below the return on capital?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(S), pages 57-76.
    4. Jean-Marc Natal & Nicolas Stoffels, 2019. "Globalization, Market Power, and the Natural Interest Rate," IMF Working Papers 2019/095, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Rodolfo G. Campos & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Galo Nuño & Peter Paz, 2024. "Navigating by Falling Stars: Monetary Policy with Fiscally Driven Natural Rates," NBER Working Papers 32219, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Carlos Carvalho & Andrea Ferrero & Felipe Mazin & Fernanda Nechio, 2023. "Demographics and Real Interest Rates Across Countries and Over Time," Working Paper Series 2023-32, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    7. Sandra Daudignon & Oreste Tristani, 2022. "Monetary policy and the drifting natural rate of interest," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 22/1057, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    8. Neri, Stefano & Gerali, Andrea, 2019. "Natural rates across the Atlantic," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    9. Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat & Mikael Juselius & Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2022. "Why So Low for So Long? A Long-Term View of Real Interest Rates," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(3), pages 47-87, September.
    10. Bielecki, Marcin & Brzoza-Brzezina, Michał & Kolasa, Marcin, 2020. "Demographics and the natural interest rate in the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    11. Brand, Claus & Goy, Gavin W & Lemke, Wolfgang, 2020. "Natural rate chimera and bond pricing reality," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224546, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    12. Marco Del Negro & Domenico Giannone & Marc P. Giannoni & Andrea Tambalotti, 2017. "Safety, Liquidity, and the Natural Rate of Interest," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(1 (Spring), pages 235-316.
    13. Papetti, Andrea, 2021. "Demographics and the natural real interest Rate: historical and projected paths for the euro area," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    14. Ceballos, Luis & Christensen, Jens H.E. & Romero, Damian, 2025. "A post-pandemic new normal for interest rates in emerging bond markets? Evidence from Chile," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    15. Jens H. E. Christensen & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2019. "A New Normal for Interest Rates? Evidence from Inflation-Indexed Debt," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(5), pages 933-949, December.
    16. Aditya Aladangady & Etienne Gagnon & Benjamin K. Johannsen & William B. Peterman, 2021. "Macroeconomic Implications of Inequality and Income Risk," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-073, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    17. Fiedler, Salomon & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & Wolters, Maik H., 2019. "Growth prospects, the natural interest rate, and monetary policy," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 13, pages 1-34.
    18. Benjamin K. Johannsen & Elmar Mertens, 2021. "A Time‐Series Model of Interest Rates with the Effective Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(5), pages 1005-1046, August.
    19. Ho, Paul, 2024. "Estimating the effects of demographics on interest rates: A robust Bayesian perspective," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    20. Robert C. M. Beyer & Lazar Milivojevic, 2023. "Dynamics and synchronization of global equilibrium interest rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(28), pages 3195-3214, June.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bis:bisqtr:2403b. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Martin Fessler (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bisssch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.