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Quo vadis, r*? The natural rate of interest after the pandemic

Author

Listed:
  • Gianluca Benigno
  • Boris Hofmann
  • Galo Nuño Barrau
  • Damiano Sandri

Abstract

Where is the natural rate of interest? How has it evolved? And where is it heading? In core advanced economies, several estimates of the natural rate have edged up. Shifts in the saving-investment balance and a more inflationary environment, which elicited a strong monetary policy response, may have been factors raising r* and perceptions thereof. The measurement of r* is, however, surrounded by very high uncertainty, making it a blurry guidepost for monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Gianluca Benigno & Boris Hofmann & Galo Nuño Barrau & Damiano Sandri, 2024. "Quo vadis, r*? The natural rate of interest after the pandemic," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:bisqtr:2403b
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ece Fisgin & Joaquin Garcia-Cabo & Alex Haag & Mitch Lott, 2025. "Expanding the Labor Market Lens: Two New Eurozone Labor Indicators," International Finance Discussion Papers 1415, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Yudai Hatayama & Yuto Iwasaki & Kyoko Nakagami & Tatsuyoshi Okimoto, 2024. "Globalization and Its Growing Impact on the Natural Rates of Interest in Developed Economies," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 24-E-13, Bank of Japan.
    3. Juselius, Mikael, 2025. "Navigating the sea of natural real interest rate estimates," BoF Economics Review 3/2025, Bank of Finland.
    4. Bank for International Settlements, 2024. "Keeping the momentum:how finance can continue to support growth in EMEs," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 148, November.
    5. repec:ptu:bdpart:e202504 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Benoit Mojon & Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul & Dora Xia, 2025. "Integrating balance sheet policy into monetary policy conditions," BIS Working Papers 1281, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Angeloni, Ignazio, 2024. "Assessing the ECB's monetary policy stance by comparing tightening cycles," SAFE White Paper Series 108, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    8. Nickel, Christiane & Kilponen, Juha & Moral-Benito, Enrique & Koester, Gerrit & Ciccarelli, Matteo & Enders, Almira & Holton, Sarah & Landau, Bettina & Venditti, Fabrizio & Bobeica, Elena & Brand, Cla, 2025. "A strategic view on the economic and inflation environment in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 371, European Central Bank.
    9. Pierre L Siklos & Dora Xia & Hongyi Chen, 2025. "R* in East Asia: business, financial cycles, and spillovers," BIS Working Papers 1285, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Alexandre Carvalho & José Miguel Cardoso da Costa & Joana Garcia & Sandra Gomes & Pedro Pires Ribeiro, 2025. "The ECB’s monetary policy strategy: from the 2021 review to the 2025 assessment," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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