La prévision des taux d’intérêt à partir de contrats futures : l’apport de variables économiques et financières
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|Length:||40 pages Abstract This study evaluates the predictive content of the 3-month Euribor contracts futures. We initially show that there is a forecast error on these contracts, on average positive and increasing with the forecast horizon. Then, we propose a method for correcting futures rates thanks to macroeconomic and financial variables. Finally, in the framework of an out-of-sample forecast exercise, we demonstate that corrected rates are better forecasts of future monetary policy path on the medium-term.|
|Date of creation:||2008|
|Date of revision:|
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Web page: http://www.banque-france.fr/
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