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Yeni Klasik kurama göre bütçe politikalarının değerlendirilmesi
[An evaluation of New Classical arguments on budget policies]

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  • Bilgili, Faik

Abstract

The New Classical theorem asserts that (a) the individuals with rational expectations do not change their consumption levels unless the expected permanent income changes, and, (b), thusly, tax and/or debt policies are not significant on consumption decisions of the individuals, at least in the long term. This paper analyzes if demand sided fiscal policies are efficient or not by observing the Turkish data for the period 1988:4-1999:1, and, the US data for the period 1980:1-1994:2. The paper follows impulse-response (IR) functions through VAR models in which consumption, GDP, tax and debt series are employed. The IR output reveals that the reactions were in the form of mirror images of each other. The paper, hence, conducts (i) the tests for the null of equal variances, (ii) pooled variance test, and, (iii) the test for the null of different variances. The relevant results yield that the mean trends of responses are equal to each other, and, that the difference between the means of the responses is equal to zero. The paper, thusly, may claim that the Turkish and US data confirm the New Classical theorem.

Suggested Citation

  • Bilgili, Faik, 1999. "Yeni Klasik kurama göre bütçe politikalarının değerlendirilmesi [An evaluation of New Classical arguments on budget policies]," MPRA Paper 80771, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:80771
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bilgili, Faik, 1999. "Türkiye'de bütçe açıklarının makro ekonomik sonuçları [The macroeconomic effects of budget deficits in Turkey]," MPRA Paper 75639, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    3. Bilgili, Faik, 1997. "Testing the Ricardian equivalence theorem in the framework of the permanent income hypothesis," MPRA Paper 75542, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Lee, Junsoo & Strazicich, Mark C, 2001. "Break Point Estimation and Spurious Rejections with Endogenous Unit Root Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 63(5), pages 535-558, December.
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    15. Kochin, Levis A, 1974. "Are Future Taxes Anticipated by Consumers? Comment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 6(3), pages 385-394, August.
    16. Bilgili, Faik, 2015. "Business cycle co-movements between renewables consumption and industrial production: A continuous wavelet coherence approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 325-332.
    17. Bilgili, Faik, 1998. "The effects of tax-cuts and government bonds on aggregate demand," MPRA Paper 75606, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Kormendi, Roger C, 1983. "Government Debt, Government Spending, and Private Sector Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(5), pages 994-1010, December.
    19. Bilgili, Faik & Bilgili, Emine, 1998. "Bütçe açığının cari işlemler üzerindeki etkileri: Teori ve uygulama [The effects of budget deficit on current account balance: Theory and empirical evidence]," MPRA Paper 80866, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Bilgili, Faik, 2003. "Dynamic implications of fiscal policy: Crowding-out or crowding-in?," MPRA Paper 24111, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 Dec 2009.
    21. Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70.
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    Cited by:

    1. Faik Bilgili, 2018. "Piyasa Ekonomisine Geçiþ Süreci ve Sonrasýnda Türkiye'de GINI Katsayýlarýnýn Analizi: Alternatif GINI Formülü Yaklaþýmý," Isletme ve Iktisat Calismalari Dergisi, Econjournals, vol. 6(1), pages 36-58.
    2. Bilgili, Faik, 2017. "Piyasa ekonomisine geçiş süreci ve sonrasında Türkiye'de GINI katsayılarının analizi: Alternatif GINI formülü yaklaşımı [During and after the process of transition to market economy, an analysis of," MPRA Paper 81043, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    New Classical theorem; rational expectations; impulse-response functions; transversality condition; budget policy; the USA; Turkey;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B2 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925
    • B3 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought: Individuals
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • D11 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Theory
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth

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