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Dynamic implications of fiscal policy: Crowding-out or crowding-in?

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  • Bilgili, Faik

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the short run and long run effects of fiscal policy. The classical-Harrodian model developed in Moudud (2000, 1999), which is an extension of Shaikh (1995, 1992, 1991), provides a demonstration of dynamic fiscal policy context. It asserts that the there is a crowding in of output growth in the short run. In the long run, however, the impact of government spending is subject to change under some circumstances of capital utilization, normal profit rate and social savings rate. Blinder and Solow (1973), using IS-LM model, reveal that bond-financed fiscal expansion does not engender a complete crowding out. Friedman (1978, 1985) notices the possibility of crowding-in. Crowding-out or crowding-in debate can be extended to other economists. Blanchard and Perotti (1999) and Easterly and Rebelo (1993) reach crowding-in results. Bairam and Ward (1993) find crowding-out of private investment. Barro (1989, 1999) and Kormendi and Meguire (1985) obtain either a negative or no effect of government spending on the growth, whereas the works of Argimon et al. (1997), Devarajan et al. (1996) and Ahmed and Miller (2000) have mixed results. This study runs VECM models and impulse response analysis to juxtapose the crowding in/out effects of fiscal policy. Investigating the short run and long-run implications of fiscal policy for the Turkish economy, this paper concludes that government investments crowd out, whereas its current expenditures crowd in the private investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Bilgili, Faik, 2003. "Dynamic implications of fiscal policy: Crowding-out or crowding-in?," MPRA Paper 24111, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 Dec 2009.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:24111
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    1. Isabel Argimon & Jose Gonzalez-Paramo & Jose Roldan, 1997. "Evidence of public spending crowding-out from a panel of OECD countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(8), pages 1001-1010.
    2. H. Ahmed & SM. Miller, 2000. "Crowding-out and crowding-in effects of the components of government expenditure," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 18(1), pages 124-133, January.
    3. Barro, Robert J, 1990. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 103-126, October.
    4. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(2), pages 407-443.
    5. Barry, Frank & Devereux, Michael B., 2003. "Expansionary fiscal contraction: A theoretical exploration," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 1-23, March.
    6. Anwar M. Shaikh, 1995. "The Stock Market and the Corporate Sector: Profit-Based Approach," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_146, Levy Economics Institute.
    7. Easterly, William & Rebelo, Sergio, 1993. "Fiscal policy and economic growth: An empirical investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 417-458, December.
    8. Devarajan, Shantayanan & Swaroop, Vinaya & Heng-fu, Zou, 1996. "The composition of public expenditure and economic growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 313-344, April.
    9. Miller, Stephen M & Russek, Frank S, 1997. "Fiscal Structures and Economic Growth: International Evidence," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 35(3), pages 603-613, July.
    10. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
    11. Aivazian, Varouj A. & Callen, Jeffrey L. & Krinsky, Itzhak & Kwan, Clarence C. Y., 1990. "Risk versus return in the substitutability of debt and equity securities," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 161-178, August.
    12. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    13. Rahbek, Anders & Christian Kongsted, Hans & Jorgensen, Clara, 1999. "Trend stationarity in the I(2) cointegration model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 265-289, June.
    14. Kormendi, Roger C. & Meguire, Philip G., 1985. "Macroeconomic determinants of growth: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 141-163, September.
    15. Ewing, Bradley T., 2003. "The response of the default risk premium to macroeconomic shocks," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 261-272.
    16. Blinder, Alan S. & Solow, Robert M., 1973. "Does fiscal policy matter?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 319-337.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:energy:v:139:y:2017:i:c:p:617-629 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Faik Bilgili & Hayriye Hilal Baðlýtaþ, 2016. "Testing the Permanent Income and Random Walk Hypotheses for Turkey†," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(4), pages 1371-1378.
    3. Bilgili, Faik, 2017. "Piyasa ekonomisine geçiş süreci ve sonrasında Türkiye'de GINI katsayılarının analizi: Alternatif GINI formülü yaklaşımı
      [During and after the process of transition to market economy, an analysis of
      ," MPRA Paper 81043, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Bilgili, Faik, 1999. "Yeni Klasik kurama göre bütçe politikalarının değerlendirilmesi
      [An evaluation of New Classical arguments on budget policies]
      ," MPRA Paper 80771, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Bilgili, Faik, 2006. "Random walk, excess smoothness or excess sensitivity? Evidence from literature and an application for Turkish economy," MPRA Paper 24086, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Jul 2010.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal policy; crowding-in; crowding-out; cointegration; VECM;

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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