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Testing the Permanent Income and Random Walk Hypotheses for Turkey

Author

Listed:
  • Faik Bilgili

    (Faculty of Economics and Administrative Science, Erciyes University, 38039, Kayseri, Turkey,)

  • Hayriye Hilal Ba l ta

    (Faculty of Economics and Administrative Science, Erciyes University, 38039, Kayseri, Turkey)

Abstract

There have been ongoing researches and debates on the dynamics of developing economies with structural changes within literature of economics since 1770s. Economics investigated some basic themes during mercantilism and physiocracy period and, however, shaped its scientific approaches together with related techniques of philosophy/mathematics/statistics through the models of Classical, Keynesian, Neo-classical, Neo-Keynesian and Monetarist. Among these approaches, permanent income hypothesis (PIH) and random walk hypothesis (RWH) have been searching/analyzing the alternative consumption functions with related possible significant parameters since 1930s. This paper, first observes different income-consumption relations through decomposing them by using auto-regressive (AR) process to test the validity of PIH, later, considers testing the RWH by decomposing permanent income into expected and unexpected parts throughout AR processes. Thereby, paper intends to explore, if exists, excessive smoothness and/or excessive sensitivity of consumption in Turkey by employing Turkish quarterly data for consumption and income, spanning from 1998:1 to 2012:1. Outcome of this paper indicates that consumption is found sensitive to changes in unexpected income as well as changes in expected income. Findings reveal overall that absolute income hypothesis is confirmed in Turkish economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Faik Bilgili & Hayriye Hilal Ba l ta, 2016. "Testing the Permanent Income and Random Walk Hypotheses for Turkey," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(4), pages 1371-1378.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ1:2016-04-11
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bilgili, Faik, 2006. "Random walk, excess smoothness or excess sensitivity? Evidence from literature and an application for Turkish economy," MPRA Paper 24086, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Jul 2010.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth

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