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Random walk, excess smoothness or excess sensitivity? Evidence from literature and an application for Turkish economy

  • Bilgili, Faik

This paper observes the Turkish household’ consumption data to see whether it follows random walk or not. The quarterly data covers the period from 1987:1 to 2003:4. By employing the direct tests for random walk, excess smoothness or excess sensitivity, this study results in both excess sensitivity and excess smoothness and rejects random walk hypothesis for the Turkish consumption pattern.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/24086/1/MPRA_paper_24086.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 24086.

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Date of creation: 02 Jun 2006
Date of revision: 14 Jul 2010
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:24086
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  2. Alessie, Rob & Lusardi, Annamaria, 1997. "Saving and income smoothing: Evidence from panel data," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(7), pages 1251-1279, July.
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  9. Vinod, H. D. & Basu, Parantap, 1995. "Forecasting consumption, income and real interest rates from alternative state space models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 217-231, June.
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  11. Sydney C. Ludvigson & Alexander Michaelides, 2001. "Does Buffer-Stock Saving Explain the Smoothness and Excess Sensitivity of Consumption?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(3), pages 631-647, June.
  12. Michener, Ron, 1984. "Permanent income in general equilibrium," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 297-305, May.
  13. Chow, Gregory C. & Zheng, Lihui, 2002. "Equity premium and consumption sensitivity when the consumer-investor allows for unfavorable circumstances," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(9-10), pages 1417-1429, August.
  14. van der Ploeg, Frederick, 1992. "Temporal risk aversion, intertemporal substitution and Keynesian propensities to consume," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 479-484, August.
  15. Bilgili, Faik, 2003. "Dynamic implications of fiscal policy: Crowding-out or crowding-in?," MPRA Paper 24111, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 Dec 2009.
  16. Peel, David & Davidson, James, 1998. "A non-linear error correction mechanism based on the bilinear model1," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 165-170, February.
  17. Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y., 1997. "Generalised Impulse Response Analysis in Linear Multivariate Models," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9710, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  18. Bilgili, Faik, 2001. "The unbiasedness and efficiency tests of the rational expectations hypothesis," MPRA Paper 24114, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Mar 2010.
  19. Souleles, Nicholas S., 2002. "Consumer response to the Reagan tax cuts," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1), pages 99-120, July.
  20. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  21. Forni, Mario, 1996. "Consumption volatility and income persistence in the permanent income model," Ricerche Economiche, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 223-234, September.
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  23. Antzoulatos, Angelos A., 1997. "On the Excess Sensitivity of Consumption to Information about Income," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 539-553, July.
  24. Flavin, Marjorie A, 1981. "The Adjustment of Consumption to Changing Expectations about Future Income," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(5), pages 974-1009, October.
  25. Madsen, Jakob B. & Mcaleer, Michael, 2000. "Direct Tests of the Permanent Income Hypothesis under Uncertainty, Inflationary Expectations and Liquidity Constraints," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 229-252, April.
  26. Seater, John J. & Mariano, Roberto S., 1985. "New tests of the life cycle and tax discounting hypotheses," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 195-215, March.
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