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A suggestion for a simple cross-country empirical proxy for trend unemployment

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  • Stephen Murchison
  • Pierre Siklos

Abstract

We propose a proxy for trend unemployment derived from the cointegration property between unemployment rates and world oil prices. Evidence from a sample of OECD countries is presented in support of the hypothesis. We argue that our empirical proxy is superior from an economic perspective to at least one popular empirical alternative and may be especially useful in cross-country type studies.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen Murchison & Pierre Siklos, 1999. "A suggestion for a simple cross-country empirical proxy for trend unemployment," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(7), pages 447-451.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:6:y:1999:i:7:p:447-451
    DOI: 10.1080/135048599352970
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hamilton, James D., 1996. "This is what happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 215-220, October.
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    3. Hooker, Mark A., 1996. "This is what happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship: Reply," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 221-222, October.
    4. Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-248, April.
    5. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
    6. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, Decembrie.
    7. Hooker, Mark A., 1996. "What happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 195-213, October.
    8. Cogley, Timothy & Nason, James M., 1995. "Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on trend and difference stationary time series Implications for business cycle research," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 253-278.
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