IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ags/aolpei/233915.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Model of the Dynamics of the Effect of World Crude Oil Price and World Rice Price on Indonesia’s Inflation Rate

Author

Listed:
  • Adam, P.
  • Rianse, U.
  • Harafah, Ĺ. M.
  • Cahyono, E.
  • Rafiy, M.

Abstract

This study aims to investigate the dynamics of the effects of world crude oil prices and world rice prices on Indonesia’s inflation rate in the period between January 2004 and September 2015. Monthly time series data spanning from January 2004 to September 2015 are analyzed using difference equation model as the econometric tool. Test result shows that there existed a dynamic effect of world oil crude prices and world rice prices on inflation rate in Indonesia. The World crude oil prices positively affected the inflation rate in that each 1% increase (decrease) in the world crude oil prices caused the inflation rate to go up (drop) by 0.33%. The world rice prices also positively affected the inflation rate, where each 1% increase (decrease) in world rice prices was followed by a 0.52% rise (fall) of the inflation rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Adam, P. & Rianse, U. & Harafah, Ĺ. M. & Cahyono, E. & Rafiy, M., 2016. "A Model of the Dynamics of the Effect of World Crude Oil Price and World Rice Price on Indonesia’s Inflation Rate," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 8(1), pages 1-10, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aolpei:233915
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.233915
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/233915/files/agris_on-line_2016_1_adam_rianse_harafah_cahyono_rafiy.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.233915?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Darby, Michael R, 1982. "The Price of Oil and World Inflation and Recession," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(4), pages 738-751, September.
    2. LeBlanc, Michael & Chinn, Menzie David, 2004. "Do High Oil Prices Presage Inflation? The Evidence from G-5 Countries," Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series qt9rr929sm, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    3. Cunado, J. & Perez de Gracia, F., 2005. "Oil prices, economic activity and inflation: evidence for some Asian countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 65-83, February.
    4. Theingi Myint & Siegfried Bauer, 2010. "Market Integration and Price Causality in the Myanmar Rice Market," Asian Journal of Agriculture and Development, Southeast Asian Regional Center for Graduate Study and Research in Agriculture (SEARCA), vol. 7(2), pages 91-105, December.
    5. Heij, Christiaan & de Boer, Paul & Franses, Philip Hans & Kloek, Teun & van Dijk, Herman K., 2004. "Econometric Methods with Applications in Business and Economics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199268016.
    6. Tang, Weiqi & Wu, Libo & Zhang, ZhongXiang, 2010. "Oil price shocks and their short- and long-term effects on the Chinese economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(Supplemen), pages 3-14, September.
    7. Werner Roeger, 2005. "International oil price changes: impact of oil prices on growth and inflation in the EU/OECD," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 15-32, June.
    8. Katircioglu, Salih Turan & Sertoglu, Kamil & Candemir, Mehmet & Mercan, Mehmet, 2015. "Oil price movements and macroeconomic performance: Evidence from twenty-six OECD countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 257-270.
    9. Fardous Alom & Bert D. Ward & Baiding Hu, 2013. "Macroeconomic effects of world oil and food price shocks in Asia and Pacific economies: application of SVAR models," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 37(3), pages 327-372, September.
    10. Álvarez, Luis J. & Hurtado, Samuel & Sánchez, Isabel & Thomas, Carlos, 2011. "The impact of oil price changes on Spanish and euro area consumer price inflation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 422-431.
    11. Abhay Abhyankar, Bing Xu, and Jiayue Wang, 2013. "Oil Price Shocks and the Stock Market: Evidence from Japan," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    12. Hunt, Benjamin & Isard, Peter & Laxton, Douglas, 2002. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Higher Oil Prices," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 179, pages 87-103, January.
    13. Muhammad Arshad Khan & Ayaz Ahmed, 2014. "Revisiting the macroeconomic effects of oil and food price shocks to Pakistan economy: a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) analysis," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 38(2), pages 184-215, June.
    14. Du, Limin & Yanan, He & Wei, Chu, 2010. "The relationship between oil price shocks and China's macro-economy: An empirical analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4142-4151, August.
    15. Ju, Keyi & Zhou, Dequn & Zhou, P. & Wu, Junmin, 2014. "Macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks in China: An empirical study based on Hilbert–Huang transform and event study," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 1053-1066.
    16. Juthathip Jongwanich & Donghyun Park, 2011. "Inflation in developing Asia: pass‐through from global food and oil price shocks," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 25(1), pages 79-92, May.
    17. Ali Ahmed, Huson Joher & Wadud, I.K.M. Mokhtarul, 2011. "Role of oil price shocks on macroeconomic activities: An SVAR approach to the Malaysian economy and monetary responses," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 8062-8069.
    18. Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-248, April.
    19. Cunado, Juncal & Perez de Gracia, Fernando, 2003. "Do oil price shocks matter? Evidence for some European countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 137-154, March.
    20. Yeliz Yalcin & Cengiz Arikan & Furkan Emirmahmutoglu, 2015. "Determining the asymmetric effects of oil price changes on macroeconomic variables: a case study of Turkey," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(4), pages 737-746, November.
    21. Wang, Yudong & Wu, Chongfeng & Yang, Li, 2013. "Oil price shocks and stock market activities: Evidence from oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 1220-1239.
    22. Sasmal, Joydeb, 2015. "Food price infl ation in India: The growing economy with sluggish agriculture," Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, Universidad ESAN, vol. 20(38), pages 30-40.
    23. Jongwanich, Juthathip & Park, Donghyun, 2009. "Inflation in developing Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 507-518, September.
    24. Roseline Nyakerario Misati & Esman Morekwa Nyamongo & Isaac Mwangi, 2013. "Commodity price shocks and inflation in a net oil-importing economy," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 37(2), pages 125-148, June.
    25. Myint, Theingi & Bauer, Siegfried, 2010. "Market Integration and Price Causality in the Myanmar Rice Market," Asian Journal of Agriculture and Development, Southeast Asian Regional Center for Graduate Study and Research in Agriculture (SEARCA), vol. 7(2), pages 1-15, December.
    26. Iwayemi, Akin & Fowowe, Babajide, 2011. "Impact of oil price shocks on selected macroeconomic variables in Nigeria," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 603-612, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Karim, Sitara & Hasan, Mudassar & Lucey, Brian M. & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2022. "Nexus between oil shocks and agriculture commodities: Evidence from time and frequency domain," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    2. La Ode Saidi & Hasan Aedy & Fajar Saranani & Rosnawintang Rosnawintang & Pasrun Adam & La Ode Arsad Sani, 2020. "Crude Oil Price and Exchange Rate: An Analysis of the Asymmetric Effect and Volatility Using the Non Linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag and General Autoregressive Conditional Heterochedasticity in ," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(1), pages 104-108.
    3. Wali Aya Rumbia & Abd Azis Muthalib & Bakhtiar Abbas & Pasrun Adam & Heppi Millia & La Ode Saidi & Muh. Irfandy Azis, 2020. "Crude Oil Prices, Household Spending and Economic Growth in the ASEAN-4 Region: An Analysis of Nonlinear Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(4), pages 437-442.
    4. Bello Abdullahi MUHAMMAD & Muhammad Shehu SHUAIBU & Mohammad Junaid ALAM & Lawan Nasiru SALISU, 2023. "The Asymmetric Impact of Oil Price Volatility on Nigeria's Inflation," Economics and Applied Informatics, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 3, pages 5-16.
    5. Abd Azis Muthalib & Pasrun Adam & Rostin Rostin & Zainuddin Saenong & La Ode Suriadi, 2018. "The Influence of Fuel Prices and Unemployment Rate towards the Poverty Level in Indonesia," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(3), pages 37-42.
    6. Chanchala Hathurusingha & Neda Abdelhamid & David Airehrour, 2019. "Forecasting Models Based on Data Analytics for Predicting Rice Price Volatility: A Case Study of the Sri Lankan Rice Market," Journal of Information & Knowledge Management (JIKM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 18(01), pages 1-20, March.
    7. Hüseyin İçen & Nimet Melis Esenyel İçen & Buğra Polat, 2022. "The Asymmetric Relationship Among Food Prices, the Exchange Rate, and Oil Prices in Turkey," EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 0(37), pages 149-169, December.
    8. Zaghum Umar & Mariya Gubareva & Muhammad Naeem & Ayesha Akhter, 2021. "Return and volatility transmission between oil price shocks and agricultural commodities," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(2), pages 1-18, February.
    9. Rostin Rostin & Abd Azis Muthalib & Pasrun Adam & Muh. Nur & Zainudin Saenong & La Ode Suriadi & Jamal Nasir Baso, 2019. "The Effect of Crude Oil Prices on Inflation, Interest Rates and Economic Growth in Indonesia," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(5), pages 14-19.
    10. Hmood Humaidi Banikhalid, 2017. "The Impact of Oil Prices on the G7¡¯s Inflation Rate: An Econometric Study for the Period (1986-2016)," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 9(6), pages 167-173, June.
    11. Pasrun Adam & Pasrun Adam & Rosnawintang Rosnawintang & Ambo Wonua Nusantara & Abd Aziz Muthalib, 2017. "A Model of the Dynamic of the Relationship between Exchange Rate and Indonesia's Export," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 255-261.
    12. Pasrun Adam & Rosnawintang Rosnawintang & La Ode Saidi & La Tondi & La Ode Arsad Sani, 2018. "The Causal Relationship between Crude Oil Price, Exchange Rate and Rice Price," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(1), pages 90-94.
    13. Manat Rahim & Pasrun Adam & Heppi Millia & La Ode Suriadi & La Ode Ode Saidi, 2021. "The Causal Relationship between Fuel Consumption, Exchange Rates and Economic Growth in South East Sulawesi, Indonesia," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(6), pages 1-6.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Razmi, Fatemeh & Azali, M. & Chin, Lee & Shah Habibullah, Muzafar, 2016. "The role of monetary transmission channels in transmitting oil price shocks to prices in ASEAN-4 countries during pre- and post-global financial crisis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 581-591.
    2. Muhammad Arshad Khan & Muhammad Iftikhar Ul Husnain & Qaisar Abbas & Syed Zulfiqar Ali Shah, 2019. "Asymmetric effects of oil price shocks on Asian economies: a nonlinear analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 1319-1350, October.
    3. Heidari, Hassan & Ebrahimi Torki, Mahyar & Babaei Balderlou, Saharnaz, 2015. "How Do Different Oil Price Shocks Affect the Relationship Between Oil and Stock Markets?," MPRA Paper 80273, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 24 Dec 2016.
    4. Daniel Francois Meyer, 2018. "The Impact of Changes in Fuel Prices on Inflation and Economic Growth in South Africa," Proceedings of the 11th International RAIS Conference, November 19-20, 2018 010DM, Research Association for Interdisciplinary Studies.
    5. John Baffes & M. Ayhan Kose & Franziska Ohnsorge & Marc Stocker, 2015. "The Great Plunge in Oil Prices: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses," Policy Research Notes (PRNs) 94725, The World Bank.
    6. Hong Thai Le & Marta Disegna, 2018. "Responses of macroeconomy and stock markets to structural oil price shocks: New evidence from Asian oil refinery," BAFES Working Papers BAFES25, Department of Accounting, Finance & Economic, Bournemouth University.
    7. Motunrayo O AKINSOLA & NM ODHIAMBO, 2020. "Oil Price And Economic Growth Of Oil-Importing Countries: A Review Of International Literature," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 20(1), pages 129-140.
    8. Ju, Keyi & Su, Bin & Zhou, Dequn & Zhang, Yuqiang, 2016. "An incentive-oriented early warning system for predicting the co-movements between oil price shocks and macroeconomy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 452-463.
    9. Dipesh Karki & Hari Gopal Risal, 2019. "Asymmetric Impact of Oil Price on Inflation: Evidence from Nepal," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Economic Research Department, vol. 31(1), pages 21-46, April.
    10. Liu, Donghui & Meng, Lingjie & Wang, Yudong, 2021. "The asymmetric effects of oil price changes on China’s exports: New evidence from a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    11. Nasir, Muhammad Ali & Naidoo, Lutchmee & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Amoo, Nii, 2018. "Implications of oil prices shocks for the major emerging economies: A comparative analysis of BRICS," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 76-88.
    12. Behmiri, Niaz Bashiri & Pires Manso, José Ramos, 2014. "The linkage between crude oil consumption and economic growth in Latin America: The panel framework investigations for multiple regions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 233-241.
    13. Liu, Donghui & Meng, Lingjie & Wang, Yudong, 2020. "Oil price shocks and Chinese economy revisited: New evidence from SVAR model with sign restrictions," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 20-32.
    14. Yonghong Jiang & Gengyu Tian & Bin Mo, 2020. "Spillover and quantile linkage between oil price shocks and stock returns: new evidence from G7 countries," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 6(1), pages 1-26, December.
    15. Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad & Yoshino, Naoyuki & Rasoulinezhad, Ehsan & Chang, Youngho, 2019. "Trade linkages and transmission of oil price fluctuations," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    16. Wensheng Kang & Ronald A. Ratti, 2015. "Oil shocks, policy uncertainty and stock returns in China," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 23(4), pages 657-676, October.
    17. Long, Shaobo & Zhang, Rui, 2022. "The asymmetric effects of international oil prices, oil price uncertainty and income on urban residents’ consumption in China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 789-805.
    18. Salah A. Nusair & Jamal A. Al-Khasawneh, 2018. "Oil price shocks and stock market returns of the GCC countries: empirical evidence from quantile regression analysis," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 51(4), pages 339-372, November.
    19. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Cornel Oros & Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2017. "Oil price–inflation pass-through in Romania during the inflation targeting regime," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(15), pages 1527-1542, March.
    20. George Filis & Ioannis Chatziantoniou, 2014. "Financial and monetary policy responses to oil price shocks: evidence from oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 42(4), pages 709-729, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aolpei:233915. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fevszcz.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.