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Regime-specific impact of financial reforms on economic growth in Pakistan

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  • Rahman, Abdul
  • Khan, Muhammad Arshad
  • Charfeddine, Lanouar

Abstract

This study uses and proposes a new methodological approach to construct a financial liberalization index on the basis of the dynamic factor model technique. The resulting index is used to investigate the impact of the financial sector reforms in Pakistan on economic growth. Using the Markov regime-switching model over the period 1972–2015, the empirical results showed that the examined relationship is nonlinear, nonmonotonic, state-dependent, and better described by the two-state Markov switching model characterized by the high growth regime and low growth regime. Despite the positive impact of financial liberalization on economic growth in both the high and low growth regimes, financial liberalization relatively strongly affects real GDP growth in the high growth regime. The results further demonstrate that transition probabilities establish an inordinate episode of the low growth regime. Furthermore, the high growth regime is relatively short-lived than the low growth regime. Among the other variables, trade openness and physical capital stock have a positive impact on economic growth, while labor force and government expenditure exert a negative effect on economic growth. Several economic policies are proposed and discussed for better functioning of financial sector development in Pakistan.

Suggested Citation

  • Rahman, Abdul & Khan, Muhammad Arshad & Charfeddine, Lanouar, 2021. "Regime-specific impact of financial reforms on economic growth in Pakistan," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 161-182.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:43:y:2021:i:1:p:161-182
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2020.10.006
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial liberalization; High and low economic growth; Dynamic factor model; Markov switching model; Nonlinear relationship;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C24 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models; Threshold Regression Models
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O43 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Institutions and Growth

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