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Business cycle variation in the risk-return trade-off

Author Info

Listed author(s):
  • Lustig, Hanno
  • Verdelhan, Adrien

Abstract

In the United States and other Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, the expected returns on stocks, adjusted for volatility, are much higher in recessions than in expansions. We consider feasible trading strategies that buy or sell shortly after business cycle turning points that are identifiable in real time and involve holding periods of up to 1 year. The observed business cycle changes in expected returns are not spuriously driven by changes in expected near-term dividend growth. Our findings imply that value-maximizing managers face much higher risk-adjusted costs of capital in their investment decisions during recessions than expansions.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304393212001511
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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Monetary Economics.

Volume (Year): 59 (2012)
Issue (Month): S ()
Pages: 35-49

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Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:59:y:2012:i:s:p:s35-s49
DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2012.11.003
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505566

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  1. Martin Lettau & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2008. "Reconciling the Return Predictability Evidence," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1607-1652, July.
  2. Ivo Welch & Amit Goyal, 2008. "A Comprehensive Look at The Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1455-1508, July.
  3. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2006. "Investor Sentiment and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1645-1680, 08.
  4. Campbell, Sean D. & Diebold, Francis X., 2009. "Stock Returns and Expected Business Conditions: Half a Century of Direct Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(2), pages 266-278.
  5. Kandel, Shmuel & Stambaugh, Robert F, 1990. "Expectations and Volatility of Consumption and Asset Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 207-232.
  6. Paul Harrison & Harold H. Zhang, 1999. "An Investigation Of The Risk And Return Relation At Long Horizons," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(3), pages 399-408, August.
  7. Chauvet, Marcelle & Piger, Jeremy, 2008. "A Comparison of the Real-Time Performance of Business Cycle Dating Methods," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 42-49, January.
  8. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November.
  9. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Forecasting inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 293-335, October.
  10. Schwert, G William, 1989. " Why Does Stock Market Volatility Change over Time?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(5), pages 1115-1153, December.
  11. Ferson, Wayne E & Harvey, Campbell R, 1991. "The Variation of Economic Risk Premiums," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 385-415, April.
  12. De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-738, August.
  13. Ludvigson, Sydney C. & Ng, Serena, 2007. "The empirical risk-return relation: A factor analysis approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 171-222, January.
  14. Hamilton, James D., 2011. "Calling recessions in real time," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1006-1026, October.
  15. Brandt, Michael W. & Kang, Qiang, 2004. "On the relationship between the conditional mean and volatility of stock returns: A latent VAR approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 217-257, May.
  16. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
  17. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Programmed Selection of Cyclical Turning Points," NBER Chapters,in: Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs, pages 7-63 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. John H. Cochrane, 2008. "The Dog That Did Not Bark: A Defense of Return Predictability," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1533-1575, July.
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Cited by:

  1. Frazier, David T. & Liu, Xiaochun, 2016. "A new approach to risk-return trade-off dynamics via decomposition," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 43-55.
  2. John Cotter & Enrique Salvador, 2014. "The non-linear trade-off between return and risk: a regime-switching multi-factor framework," Papers 1410.6005, arXiv.org.
  3. Alfonso Mendoza Velázquez & Peter N. Smith, 2013. "Equity Returns and the Business Cycle: the Role of Supply and Demand Shocks," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 81, pages 100-124, 09.
  4. Michael Weber, 2014. "Nominal Rigidities and Asset Pricing," 2014 Meeting Papers 53, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  5. Nektarios Aslanidis & Charlotte Christiansen & Neophytos Lambertides & Christos S. Savva, 2014. "Idiosyncratic Volatility Puzzle: Influence of Macro-Finance Factors," CREATES Research Papers 2014-45, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  6. Salvador, Enrique & Floros, Christos & Arago, Vicent, 2014. "Re-examining the risk–return relationship in Europe: Linear or non-linear trade-off?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 60-77.
  7. Andrés Mauricio Gómez Sánchez & José Gabriel Astaiza Gómez, 2013. "Ciclo económico y prima por riesgo en el mercado accionario colombiano," REVISTA ECOS DE ECONOMÍA, UNIVERSIDAD EAFIT, December.
  8. Cho, Jin-Wan & Choi, Joung Hwa & Kim, Taeyong & Kim, Woojin, 2016. "Flight-to-quality and correlation between currency and stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 191-212.
  9. repec:luc:wpaper:13-1 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. Andrés Mauricio Gómez Sánchez & José Gabriel Astaiza Gómez, 2015. "Ex-post Equity Risk Premiums and Economic Cycles in Colombia: An Empirical Research Using Kalman and Hodrick-Prescott Filters," REVISTA FINANZAS Y POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, UNIVERSIDAD CATOLICA DE COLOMBIA, vol. 7(1), pages 109-129, January.
  11. Fabian Irek & Thorsten Lehnert, 2013. "Do Fund Investors Know that Risk is Sometimes not Priced?," LSF Research Working Paper Series 13-1, Luxembourg School of Finance, University of Luxembourg.
  12. Alan Moreira & Tyler Muir, 2016. "Volatility Managed Portfolios," NBER Working Papers 22208, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Aslanidis, Nektarios & Christiansen, Charlotte & Savva, Christos S., 2016. "Risk-return trade-off for European stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 84-103.
  14. Siddiqi, Hammad, 2011. "Thinking by analogy, systematic risk, and option prices," MPRA Paper 31316, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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