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Business cycle variation in the risk-return trade-off

Author Info

  • Lustig, Hanno
  • Verdelhan, Adrien

Abstract

In the United States and other Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, the expected returns on stocks, adjusted for volatility, are much higher in recessions than in expansions. We consider feasible trading strategies that buy or sell shortly after business cycle turning points that are identifiable in real time and involve holding periods of up to 1 year. The observed business cycle changes in expected returns are not spuriously driven by changes in expected near-term dividend growth. Our findings imply that value-maximizing managers face much higher risk-adjusted costs of capital in their investment decisions during recessions than expansions.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Monetary Economics.

Volume (Year): 59 (2012)
Issue (Month): S ()
Pages: S35-S49

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Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:59:y:2012:i:s:p:s35-s49
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505566

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Cited by:

  1. repec:luc:wpaper:13-1 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Cho, Jin-Wan & Choi, Joung Hwa & Kim, Taeyong & Kim, Woojin, 2016. "Flight-to-quality and correlation between currency and stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 191-212.
  3. John Cotter & Enrique Salvador, 2014. "The non-linear trade-off between return and risk: a regime-switching multi-factor framework," Working Papers 201414, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
  4. Alfonso Mendoza Velázquez & Peter N. Smith, 2013. "Equity Returns and the Business Cycle: The Role of Supply and Demand Shocks," CAMA Working Papers 2013-22, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  5. Salvador, Enrique & Floros, Christos & Arago, Vicent, 2014. "Re-examining the risk–return relationship in Europe: Linear or non-linear trade-off?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 60-77.
  6. Andrés Mauricio Gómez Sánchez & José Gabriel Astaiza Gómez, 2015. "Ex-post Equity Risk Premiums and Economic Cycles in Colombia: An Empirical Research Using Kalman and Hodrick-Prescott Filters," REVISTA FINANZAS Y POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, UNIVERSIDAD CATOLICA DE COLOMBIA, January.
  7. Frazier, David T. & Liu, Xiaochun, 2016. "A new approach to risk-return trade-off dynamics via decomposition," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 43-55.
  8. Fabian Irek & Thorsten Lehnert, 2013. "Do Fund Investors Know that Risk is Sometimes not Priced?," LSF Research Working Paper Series 13-1, Luxembourg School of Finance, University of Luxembourg.
  9. Aslanidis, Nektarios & Christiansen, Charlotte & Savva, Christos S., 2016. "Risk-return trade-off for European stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 84-103.
  10. Siddiqi, Hammad, 2011. "Thinking by analogy, systematic risk, and option prices," MPRA Paper 31316, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Nektarios Aslanidis & Charlotte Christiansen & Neophytos Lambertides & Christos S. Savva, 2014. "Idiosyncratic Volatility Puzzle: Influence of Macro-Finance Factors," CREATES Research Papers 2014-45, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  12. Michael Weber, 2014. "Nominal Rigidities and Asset Pricing," 2014 Meeting Papers 53, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  13. Alan Moreira & Tyler Muir, 2016. "Volatility Managed Portfolios," NBER Working Papers 22208, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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