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Business cycle variation in the risk-return trade-off

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  • Lustig, Hanno
  • Verdelhan, Adrien

Abstract

In the United States and other Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, the expected returns on stocks, adjusted for volatility, are much higher in recessions than in expansions. We consider feasible trading strategies that buy or sell shortly after business cycle turning points that are identifiable in real time and involve holding periods of up to 1 year. The observed business cycle changes in expected returns are not spuriously driven by changes in expected near-term dividend growth. Our findings imply that value-maximizing managers face much higher risk-adjusted costs of capital in their investment decisions during recessions than expansions.

Suggested Citation

  • Lustig, Hanno & Verdelhan, Adrien, 2012. "Business cycle variation in the risk-return trade-off," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(S), pages 35-49.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:59:y:2012:i:s:p:s35-s49
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2012.11.003
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:eee:finsta:v:31:y:2017:i:c:p:107-118 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Frazier, David T. & Liu, Xiaochun, 2016. "A new approach to risk-return trade-off dynamics via decomposition," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 43-55.
    3. John Cotter & Enrique Salvador, 2014. "The non-linear trade-off between return and risk: a regime-switching multi-factor framework," Papers 1410.6005, arXiv.org.
    4. Alfonso Mendoza Velázquez & Peter N. Smith, 2013. "Equity Returns and the Business Cycle: the Role of Supply and Demand Shocks," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 81, pages 100-124, September.
    5. Michael Weber, 2014. "Nominal Rigidities and Asset Pricing," 2014 Meeting Papers 53, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Nektarios Aslanidis & Charlotte Christiansen & Neophytos Lambertides & Christos S. Savva, 2014. "Idiosyncratic Volatility Puzzle: Influence of Macro-Finance Factors," CREATES Research Papers 2014-45, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    7. Salvador, Enrique & Floros, Christos & Arago, Vicent, 2014. "Re-examining the risk–return relationship in Europe: Linear or non-linear trade-off?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 60-77.
    8. Andrés Mauricio Gómez Sánchez & José Gabriel Astaiza Gómez, 2013. "Ciclo económico y prima por riesgo en el mercado accionario colombiano," REVISTA ECOS DE ECONOMÍA, UNIVERSIDAD EAFIT, December.
    9. Cho, Jin-Wan & Choi, Joung Hwa & Kim, Taeyong & Kim, Woojin, 2016. "Flight-to-quality and correlation between currency and stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 191-212.
    10. repec:luc:wpaper:13-1 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Andrés Mauricio Gómez Sánchez & José Gabriel Astaiza Gómez, 2015. "Ex-post Equity Risk Premiums and Economic Cycles in Colombia: An Empirical Research Using Kalman and Hodrick-Prescott Filters," REVISTA FINANZAS Y POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, UNIVERSIDAD CATOLICA DE COLOMBIA, vol. 7(1), pages 109-129, January.
    12. Fabian Irek & Thorsten Lehnert, 2013. "Do Fund Investors Know that Risk is Sometimes not Priced?," LSF Research Working Paper Series 13-1, Luxembourg School of Finance, University of Luxembourg.
    13. repec:eee:macchp:v2-2131 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Alan Moreira & Tyler Muir, 2016. "Volatility Managed Portfolios," NBER Working Papers 22208, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. repec:eee:quaeco:v:66:y:2017:i:c:p:275-293 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Aslanidis, Nektarios & Christiansen, Charlotte & Savva, Christos S., 2016. "Risk-return trade-off for European stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 84-103.
    17. Siddiqi, Hammad, 2011. "Thinking by analogy, systematic risk, and option prices," MPRA Paper 31316, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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