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ECB spillovers and domestic monetary policy effectiveness in small open economies

Author

Listed:
  • Saskia Ter Ellen

    (Norges Bank)

  • Edvard Jansen

    (Formuesforvaltning)

  • Nina Larsson Midthjell

    (Norges Bank)

Abstract

In this paper we study financial spillovers from the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy and communication, and whether they have consequences for the effectiveness of domestic monetary policy of small open economies. Recent work suggests that the "trilemma" in international economics as we used to know it, is actually a dilemma: small open economies with floating exchange rate regimes can only have independent monetary policies when the capital account is managed. Our findings show that domestic monetary policy is still effective, but that spillover effects, particularly from the ECB's communication, reduce domestic control over the longer end of the yield curve.

Suggested Citation

  • Saskia Ter Ellen & Edvard Jansen & Nina Larsson Midthjell, 2018. "ECB spillovers and domestic monetary policy effectiveness in small open economies," Working Paper 2018/9, Norges Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:bno:worpap:2018_09
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    File URL: https://www.norges-bank.no/en/Published/Papers/Working-Papers/2018/92018/
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    Cited by:

    1. Jursa, Lukáš & Janků, Jan, 2025. "From the core to the European periphery: Spillover effects of financial cycles," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    2. Thomas Nitschka & Diego M. Hager, 2022. "Responses of Swiss bond yields and stock prices to ECB policy surprises," Working Papers 2022-08, Swiss National Bank.
    3. Tirimisiyu F. Oloko & Ahamuefula E. Ogbonna & Idris A. Adediran, 2024. "Digital Currencies and Macroeconomic Performance: A Global Perspective," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 27(2), pages 351-394, May.
    4. Rashedur Sardar & Matthew Schaffer, 2022. "International Monetary Spillovers to Frontier Financial Markets: Evidence from Bangladesh," UNCG Economics Working Papers 22-5, University of North Carolina at Greensboro, Department of Economics.
    5. Hager, Diego & Nitschka, Thomas, 2022. "The Impact of COVID-19 and other Crises on the Responses of Swiss Bond Yields and Stock Prices to ECB Policy Surprises," VfS Annual Conference 2022 (Basel): Big Data in Economics 264018, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    6. Cho, Sang-Wook (Stanley) & Wong, Sally, 2025. "Monetary regimes and regional economies: A counterfactual perspective from two euro opt-outs," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    7. Kuester, Keith & Corsetti, Giancarlo & Müller, Gernot & Schmidt, Sebastian, 2021. "The Exchange Rate Insulation Puzzle," CEPR Discussion Papers 15689, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. García, Carlos J. & González, Wildo & Valenzuela, Gabriel, 2025. "The valuation of economic recovery: The case for investment-led fiscal spending policies in open economies," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    9. Brubakk, Leif & ter Ellen, Saskia & Robstad, Ørjan & Xu, Hong, 2022. "The macroeconomic effects of forward communication," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    10. Grahame Johnson & Sharon Kozicki & Romanos Priftis & Lena Suchanek & Jonathan Witmer & Jing Yang, 2020. "Implementation and Effectiveness of Extended Monetary Policy Tools: Lessons from the Literature," Discussion Papers 2020-16, Bank of Canada.
    11. Gkillas, Konstantinos & Konstantatos, Christoforos & Floros, Christos & Tsagkanos, Athanasios, 2021. "Realized volatility spillovers between US spot and futures during ECB news: Evidence from the European sovereign debt crisis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    12. Milan Deskar-Škrbiæ & Antonija Buljan & Mirna Dumèiæ, 2020. "Real interest rate convergence and monetary policy independence in CEE countries," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 38(2), pages 349-380.
    13. Jarociński, Marek, 2022. "Central bank information effects and transatlantic spillovers," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    14. Yahyaei, Hamid & Singh, Abhay & De Mello, Lurion, 2024. "The Federal Reserve’s Quantitative Easing policy and volatility spillovers: Evidence from Australia," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    15. Nicolae-Bogdan IANC & Adrian-Marius IONESCU, 2021. "Do Central and Eastern Countries benefit from ECB’s unconventional monetary policies?," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2898, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    16. Diego M. Hager & Thomas Nitschka, 2023. "Responses of Swiss interest rates and stock prices to ECB policy surprises," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 159(1), pages 1-14, December.
    17. Frederik Neugebauer, 2020. "ECB Announcements and Stock Market Volatility," WHU Working Paper Series - Economics Group 20-02, WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management.
    18. Elizaveta P. Dobronravova, 2025. "The Impact of Monetary Policy on Loan and Deposit Rates in the Context of Limited Capital Mobility in Russia," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 3, pages 108-125, June.
    19. Afees Adebare Salisu, 2024. "India And The Rest Of The World: Analyses Of International Monetary Policy Spillovers," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 27(3), pages 573-600, July.
    20. Shieh, Harrison, 2024. "Can you hear me now? Identifying the effect of Chinese monetary policy announcements," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    21. Veronika Kajurová & Dagmar Vágnerová Linnertová, 2022. "The Nexus between Monetary Policy and Commercial Lending Rates: Comprehensive Evidence from Czechia during Different Policy Stances," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 60(4), pages 330-351, July.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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