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Foreign exchange markets in South-East Asia 1990-2004: An empirical analysis of spillovers during crisis and non-crisis periods

Listed author(s):
  • Mandilaras, Alex
  • Bird, Graham

The East Asian crisis of 1997 sparked an extensive literature in an effort to explain the causes and spread of heightened foreign exchange (FX) market pressures in the region. In this paper we model FX movements and calculate spillover effects covering the extended period between 1990 and 2004. Using Markov switching vector autoregressions, we find substantial evidence that FX correlations vary across crisis and non-crisis states, a result that bears implications for international portfolio diversification and reserve pooling. Contagion effects are also present during crises. Finally, we gauge the ability of stock market indices to forecast time-varying transition probabilities and discover positive results

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1062-9408(06)00044-1
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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal The North American Journal of Economics and Finance.

Volume (Year): 18 (2007)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Pages: 41-57

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:18:y:2007:i:1:p:41-57
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620163

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  1. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. " Contagious Currency Crises: First Tests," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 98(4), pages 463-484, December.
  2. Kari H. Eika & Neil R. Ericsson & Ragnar Nymoen, 1996. "Hazards in implementing a monetary conditions index," International Finance Discussion Papers 568, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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  4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48.
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  6. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1998. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," MPRA Paper 13709, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Cerra, Valerie & Saxena, Sweta Chaman, 2002. "Contagion, Monsoons, and Domestic Turmoil in Indonesia's Currency Crisis," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(1), pages 36-44, February.
  8. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-325, August.
  9. Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti & Nouriel Roubini, 1998. "Paper tigers? A model of the Asian crisis," Research Paper 9822, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  10. Glick, Reuven & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "Contagion and Trade: Why are Currency Crises Regional," CEPR Discussion Papers 1947, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2000. "Lessons from the Asian Crisis," NBER Working Papers 7102, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
  13. Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry & Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo & Vance Martin, 2005. "Empirical modelling of contagion: a review of methodologies," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 9-24.
  14. Andrew J. Filardo & Stephen F. Gordon, 1993. "Business cycle durations," Research Working Paper 93-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  15. Kristin Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 1999. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Co-movements," NBER Working Papers 7267, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Ekniti Nitithanprapas & Thomas D. Willett, "undated". "A Currency Crises Model That Works: A Payments Disequilibrium Approach," Claremont Colleges Working Papers 2000-25, Claremont Colleges.
  17. repec:rus:hseeco:181565 is not listed on IDEAS
  18. Chui, Michael & Gai, Prasanna, 2005. "Private Sector Involvement and International Financial Crises: An Analytical Perspective," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199267750.
  19. Van Rijckeghem, Caroline & Weder, Beatrice, 2001. "Sources of contagion: is it finance or trade?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 293-308, August.
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