Market Efficiency and Government Interventions in Prewar Japanese Rice Futures Markets
This study analyzes how colonial rice trade in prewar Japan affected its rice market, considering several government interventions in the two rice futures exchanges in Tokyo and Osaka. We explore the interventions in the futures markets using two procedures. First, we measure the joint degree of efficiency in the markets using a time-varying vector autoregression model. Second, we examine many historical events that possibly affected the markets and focus on one event at a time. The degree varies over time within our sample period (1881-1932). The observation, together with historical analysis, leads to the following conclusions. (1) The two major markets in Tokyo and Osaka were nearly efficient. (2) Government interventions involving the delivery of imported rice from Taiwan and Korea often reduced futures market efficiency. Finally, (3) this relationship continued as long as the quality difference between imported and domestic rice existed. The government interventions that promoted domestic distributions of the colonial goods resulted in confusion in the commodity markets, and decreased efficiency of the markets in the metropole.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
- Perron, Pierre & Rodriguez, Gabriel, 2003.
"GLS detrending, efficient unit root tests and structural change,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 1-27, July.
- Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
- Elliott, Graham, 1999. "Efficient Tests for a Unit Root When the Initial Observation Is Drawn from Its Unconditional Distribution," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 40(3), pages 767-783, August.
- Graham Elliott & Thomas J. Rothenberg & James H. Stock, 1992. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," NBER Technical Working Papers 0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "GLSDETREND: RATS procedure to perform local to unity GLS detrending," Statistical Software Components RTS00077, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "ERSTEST: RATS procedure to perform Elliott-Rothenberg-Stock unit root tests," Statistical Software Components RTS00066, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Hansen, Bruce E., 1992. "Testing for parameter instability in linear models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 517-533, August.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "STABTEST: RATS procedure to perform Hansen's stability test for OLS," Statistical Software Components RTS00199, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Shigeyuki Hamori & Naoko Hamori & David A. Anderson, 2001. "An Empirical Analysis of the Efficiency of the Osaka Rice Market During Japan's Tokugawa Era," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(9), pages 861-874, 09.
- Hamilton, James D., 1987. "Monetary factors in the great depression," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 145-169, March.
- Mikio Ito & Akihiko Noda & Tatsuma Wada, 2016. "The evolution of stock market efficiency in the US: a non-Bayesian time-varying model approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(7), pages 621-635, February.
- Mikio Ito & Akihiko Noda & Tatsuma Wada, 2012. "The Evolution of Stock Market Efficiency in the US: A Non-Bayesian Time-Varying Model Approach," Papers 1202.0100, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2015.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1404.1164. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (arXiv administrators)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.