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Discretion versus Policy Rules in Futures Markets: A Case of the Osaka-Dojima Rice Exchange, 1914-1939

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  • Mikio Ito
  • Kiyotaka Maeda
  • Akihiko Noda

Abstract

We investigate the relationship between market efficiency of rice futures transaction in Osaka and the Japanese government intervention in rice distributions by directly buying and selling rice during the interwar period, from the middle 1910s to 1939, considering the context of "discretion versus rules." We use a time-varying VAR model to compare market efficiency and the government's actions over time. We found the two facts by featuring the time-varying nature of the market efficiency. First, the intervention with discretionary power disrupted the rice market and reduced market efficiency in the exchange. Second, the market efficiency improved in accordance with reduction in the government's discretionary power to operate the rice policy. When the government obtained the discretionary power to operate the policy regarding commodity market, the market efficiency often reduced. Conversely, even if the government implemented a large-scale intervention, the market efficiency improved when the government chose a systematic rule-like behavior following the law.

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  • Mikio Ito & Kiyotaka Maeda & Akihiko Noda, 2017. "Discretion versus Policy Rules in Futures Markets: A Case of the Osaka-Dojima Rice Exchange, 1914-1939," Papers 1704.00985, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2018.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1704.00985
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ronald Findlay & Kevin H. O'Rourke, 2007. "Power and Plenty: Trade, War and the World Economy in the Second Millennium (Preface)," Trinity Economics Papers tep0107, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    2. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    3. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-853, October.
    4. Ronald Findlay & Kevin H. O'Rourke, 2007. "Introduction to Power and Plenty: Trade, War, and the World Economy in the Second Millennium," Introductory Chapters,in: Power and Plenty: Trade, War, and the World Economy in the Second Millennium Princeton University Press.
    5. Okubo, Toshihiro, 2007. "Trade bloc formation in inter-war Japan.: A gravity model analysis," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 214-236, June.
    6. Don M. Chance, 1985. "A semiā€strong form test of the efficiency of the treasury bond futures market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(3), pages 385-405, September.
    7. Ronald Findlay & Kevin H. O'Rourke, 2007. "Preface to Power and Plenty: Trade, War, and the World Economy in the Second Millennium," Introductory Chapters,in: Power and Plenty: Trade, War, and the World Economy in the Second Millennium Princeton University Press.
    8. Mikio Ito & Kiyotaka Maeda & Akihiko Noda, 2018. "The futures premium and rice market efficiency in prewar Japan," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 71(3), pages 909-937, August.
    9. Mikio Ito & Akihiko Noda & Tatsuma Wada, 2016. "The evolution of stock market efficiency in the US: a non-Bayesian time-varying model approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(7), pages 621-635, February.
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