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Indirect Inference, Nuisance Parameter and Threshold Moving Average

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Abstract

We analyse the modifications that occur in indirect inference when a nuisance parameter is not identified under the null hypothesis. We develop a testing procedure adapted to this simulation based estimation method, and detail its use for detecting the threshold effect in threshold moving average models with contemporaneous and lagged asymetries. In contrast to existing threshold models, these models allow to take into account the presence of asymetric effects of current and lagged random shocks on US GNP growth rates. Nous analysons les modifications à apporter à la méthode d'inférence indirecte lorsqu'un paramètre de nuisance n'est pas identifié sous l'hypothèse nulle. Nous développons une procédure de test adaptée à cette méthode d'estimation fondée sur des simulations, et détaillons son utilisation dans la détection de l'effet de seuil dans des modèles moyennes mobiles à seuils avec asymétries contemporaines et retardées. Par rapport aux autres modèles à seuils existants, ces modèles permettent de prendre en compte la présence d'effets asymétriques des chocs courants et retardés sur la série de taux de croissance du PNB américain.

Suggested Citation

  • Alain Guay & Olivier Scaillet, 1999. "Indirect Inference, Nuisance Parameter and Threshold Moving Average," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 95, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
  • Handle: RePEc:cre:crefwp:95
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified under the Null Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 413-430, March.
    2. Ghysels, Eric & Guay, Alain & Hall, Alastair, 1998. "Predictive tests for structural change with unknown breakpoint," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 209-233, February.
    3. Gourieroux, C & Monfort, A & Renault, E, 1993. "Indirect Inference," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(S), pages 85-118, Suppl. De.
    4. Hansen, Bruce E., 2000. "Testing for structural change in conditional models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 93-115, July.
    5. Beaudry, Paul & Koop, Gary, 1993. "Do recessions permanently change output?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 149-163, April.
    6. Ghysels, Eric & Guay, Alain, 2003. "Structural change tests for simulated method of moments," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 91-123, July.
    7. repec:cup:etheor:v:12:y:1996:i:4:p:657-81 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
    9. Babsiri, Mohamed El & Zakoian, Jean-Michel, 2001. "Contemporaneous asymmetry in GARCH processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 101(2), pages 257-294, April.
    10. Gallant, A. Ronald & Tauchen, George, 1996. "Which Moments to Match?," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(04), pages 657-681, October.
    11. Gouriéroux, Christian & Monfort, Alain, 1995. "Testing, Encompassing, and Simulating Dynamic Econometric Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(02), pages 195-228, February.
    12. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-856, July.
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    14. Eric Ghysels & Alain Guay, 1998. "Structural Change Tests for Simulated Method of Moments," Working Papers 98-37, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    15. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Taştan, Hüseyin, 2011. "Simulation based estimation of threshold moving average models with contemporaneous shock asymmetry," MPRA Paper 34302, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Catherine Bruneau & Amine Lahiani, 2006. "Estimation d'un modèle TIMA avec asymétrie contemporaine par inférence indirecte," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 142(IV), pages 479-500, December.
    3. Matteo Barigozzi & Roxana Halbleib & David Veredas, "undated". "Which model to match?," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/136240, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    4. Grassi, Stefano & Santucci de Magistris, Paolo, 2015. "It's all about volatility of volatility: Evidence from a two-factor stochastic volatility model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 62-78.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    threshold model; indirect inference; nuisance parameter;

    JEL classification:

    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables

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