IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/eth/wpswif/10-138.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Market concentration and the likelihood of financial crises

Author

Abstract

According to theory, market concentration affects the likelihood of a financial crisis in different ways. The “concentration-stability” and the “concentrationfragility” hypotheses suggest opposing effects operating through specific channels. Using data of 160 countries for the period 1970-2007, this paper empirically tests these indirect effects of financial market structure. We set up a simultaneous system in order to jointly estimate financial stability and the relevant channel variables as endogenous variables. Our findings provide support for the assumption of channel effects in general and both the concentrationstability and the concentration-fragility hypothesis in particular. The effects are found to vary between high and low income countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Lucas Bretschger & Vivien Kappel, 2010. "Market concentration and the likelihood of financial crises," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 10/138, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    • Handle: RePEc:eth:wpswif:10-138
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ethz.ch/content/dam/ethz/special-interest/mtec/cer-eth/cer-eth-dam/documents/working-papers/WP-10-138.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Luc Laeven & Fabian Valencia, 2010. "Resolution of Banking Crises; The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly," IMF Working Papers 2010/146, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "The Aftermath of Financial Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 466-472, May.
    3. Beck, Thorsten & De Jonghe, Olivier & Schepens, Glenn, 2013. "Bank competition and stability: Cross-country heterogeneity," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 218-244.
    4. Demirguc, Asli & Huizinga, Harry, 1999. "Determinants of Commercial Bank Interest Margins and Profitability: Some International Evidence," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 13(2), pages 379-408, May.
    5. Athanasoglou, Panayiotis P. & Brissimis, Sophocles N. & Delis, Matthaios D., 2008. "Bank-specific, industry-specific and macroeconomic determinants of bank profitability," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 121-136, April.
    6. Eichengreen, Barry & Gibson, Heather D, 2001. "Greek Banking at the Dawn of the New Millennium," CEPR Discussion Papers 2791, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Prasanna Gai & Nigel Jenkinson & Sujit Kapadia, 2007. "Systemic risk in modern financial systems: analytics and policy design," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 8(2), pages 156-165, March.
    8. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Laeven, Luc & Levine, Ross, 2004. "Regulations, Market Structure, Institutions, and the Cost of Financial Intermediation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(3), pages 593-622, June.
    9. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Detragiache, Enrica, 2002. "Does deposit insurance increase banking system stability? An empirical investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(7), pages 1373-1406, October.
    10. Antonio Ruiz-Porras, 2008. "Banking Competition and Financial Fragility: Evidence from Panel-Data," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 23(1), pages 49-87.
    11. Molyneux, Philip & Thornton, John, 1992. "Determinants of European bank profitability: A note," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 1173-1178, December.
    12. repec:oup:ecpoli:v:25:y:2010:i::p:267-293 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Prasanna Gai & Sujit Kapadia & Stephen Millard & Ander Perez, 2008. "Financial Innovation, Macroeconomic Stability and Systemic Crises," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(527), pages 401-426, March.
    14. Asli Demirguc-Kunt & Edward J. Kane, 2002. "Deposit Insurance Around the Globe: Where Does It Work?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(2), pages 175-195, Spring.
    15. Fabian Valencia & Luc Laeven, 2008. "Systemic Banking Crises; A New Database," IMF Working Papers 2008/224, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Tavares, Jose & Wacziarg, Romain, 2001. "How democracy affects growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(8), pages 1341-1378, August.
    17. James H. Stock & Motohiro Yogo, 2002. "Testing for Weak Instruments in Linear IV Regression," NBER Technical Working Papers 0284, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Kenneth Rogoff, 1999. "International Institutions for Reducing Global Financial Instability," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 21-42, Fall.
    19. Beck, Thorsten & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Levine, Ross, 2006. "Bank concentration, competition, and crises: First results," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 1581-1603, May.
    20. James D. Hamilton, 2008. "Macroeconomics and ARCH," NBER Working Papers 14151, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli & Kane, Edward J. & Laeven, Luc, 2008. "Determinants of deposit-insurance adoption and design," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 407-438, July.
    22. Matutes, Carmen & Vives, Xavier, 2000. "Imperfect competition, risk taking, and regulation in banking," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 1-34, January.
    23. Thorsten Beck & Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Ross Levine, 2010. "Financial Institutions and Markets across Countries and over Time: The Updated Financial Development and Structure Database," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 24(1), pages 77-92, January.
    24. Berger, Allen N. & Bonime, Seth D. & Covitz, Daniel M. & Hancock, Diana, 2000. "Why are bank profits so persistent? The roles of product market competition, informational opacity, and regional/macroeconomic shocks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(7), pages 1203-1235, July.
    25. Beck, Thorsten, 2008. "Bank competition and financial stability : friends or foes ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4656, The World Bank.
    26. John Goddard & Phil Molyneux & John O. S. Wilson, 2004. "The profitability of european banks: a cross‐sectional and dynamic panel analysis," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 72(3), pages 363-381, June.
    27. Bourke, Philip, 1989. "Concentration and other determinants of bank profitability in Europe, North America and Australia," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 65-79, March.
    28. John H. Boyd & Gianni De Nicoló, 2005. "The Theory of Bank Risk Taking and Competition Revisited," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1329-1343, June.
    29. Allen N. Berger & Asli Demirgüč-Kunt & Joseph G. Haubrich & Ross Levine, 2004. "Introduction: Bank concentration and competition: an evolution in the making," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 433-451.
    30. Evrensel, Ayse Y., 2008. "Banking crisis and financial structure: A survival-time analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 589-602, October.
    31. Berger, Allen N, et al, 2004. "Bank Concentration and Competition: An Evolution in the Making," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(3), pages 433-451, June.
    32. Chang, E.J. & Guerra, S.M. & Lima, E.J.A. & Tabak, B.M., 2008. "The stability-concentration relationship in the Brazilian banking system," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 388-397, October.
    33. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 1997. "The Determinants of Banking Crises; Evidence From Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Working Papers 1997/106, International Monetary Fund.
    34. Stijn Claessens & Luc Laeven & Deniz O Igan & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia, 2010. "Lessons and Policy Implications from the Global Financial Crisis," IMF Working Papers 2010/044, International Monetary Fund.
    35. Lawrence H. Summers, 2000. "International Financial Crises: Causes, Prevention, and Cures," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 1-16, May.
    36. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 1998. "The Determinants of Banking Crises in Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 81-109, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Edgar A. Ghossoub & Robert R. Reed, 2019. "Banking competition, production externalities, and the effects of monetary policy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 67(1), pages 91-154, February.
    2. Ogura, Yoshiaki, 2020. "Intensified lending competition and search-for-yield under prolonged monetary easing," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    3. Dungey, Mardi & Gajurel, Dinesh, 2015. "Contagion and banking crisis – International evidence for 2007–2009," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 271-283.
    4. López, Tania & Winkler, Adalbert, 2019. "Does financial inclusion mitigate credit boom-bust cycles?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 116-129.
    5. Chu, Kam Hon, 2015. "Bank consolidation and stability: The Canadian experience, 1867–1935," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 46-60.
    6. Craig, Ben R. & Dinger, Valeriya, 2013. "Deposit market competition, wholesale funding, and bank risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 3605-3622.
    7. Schulte, Markus & Winkler, Adalbert, 2019. "Drivers of solvency risk – Are microfinance institutions different?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 403-426.
    8. Ben Ali, Mohamed Sami & Fhima, Fredj & Nouira, Ridha, 2020. "How does corruption undermine banking stability? A threshold nonlinear framework," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    9. Mohamed Sami Ben Ali & Timoumi Intissar & Rami Zeitun, 2018. "Banking Concentration and Financial Stability. New Evidence from Developed and Developing Countries," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 44(1), pages 117-134, January.
    10. Yoshiaki Ogura, 2019. "Search-for-Yield under Prolonged Monetary Easing and Aging," Working Papers e142, Tokyo Center for Economic Research.
    11. Samangi Bandaranayake & Kuntal K. Das & Robert W. Reed, 2020. "Another Look At ‘Bank Competition And Financial Stability: Much Ado About Nothing’?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(2), pages 344-371, April.
    12. Samangi Bandaranayake & Kuntal K. Das & W. Robert Reed, 2018. "A Replication of “Bank Competition and Financial Stability: Much Ado About Nothing?” (Journal of Economic Surveys, 2016)," Working Papers in Economics 18/18, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    13. Dongyeol Lee & Hyunjoon Lim, 2019. "Industrial structure and the probability of crisis: Stability is not resilience," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(1), pages 212-226, January.
    14. Chen, Pei-Fen & Lin, Chun-Wei & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2019. "Financial crises, globalization, and insurer performance: Some international evidence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 835-856.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Beck, Thorsten & De Jonghe, Olivier & Schepens, Glenn, 2013. "Bank competition and stability: Cross-country heterogeneity," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 218-244.
    2. Athanasoglou, Panayiotis P. & Brissimis, Sophocles N. & Delis, Matthaios D., 2008. "Bank-specific, industry-specific and macroeconomic determinants of bank profitability," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 121-136, April.
    3. Khan, Habib Hussain & Ahmad, Rubi Binti & Chan, Sok Gee, 2018. "Market structure, bank conduct and bank performance: Evidence from ASEAN," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(5), pages 934-958.
    4. Mohamed Sami Ben Ali & Timoumi Intissar & Rami Zeitun, 2018. "Banking Concentration and Financial Stability. New Evidence from Developed and Developing Countries," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 44(1), pages 117-134, January.
    5. Anginer, Deniz & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Zhu, Min, 2014. "How does competition affect bank systemic risk?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 1-26.
    6. Pankaj Sinha & Sakshi Sharma, 2016. "Determinants of bank profits and its persistence in Indian Banks: a study in a dynamic panel data framework," International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, Springer;The Society for Reliability, Engineering Quality and Operations Management (SREQOM),India, and Division of Operation and Maintenance, Lulea University of Technology, Sweden, vol. 7(1), pages 35-46, March.
    7. Andrea Calef, 2020. "Systemic Banking Crises: The Relationship Between Concentration and Interbank Connections," University of East Anglia School of Economics Working Paper Series 2019-06, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
    8. Feldmann, Horst, 2015. "Banking system concentration and unemployment in developing countries," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 60-78.
    9. Allen, Franklin & Gu, Xian & Kowalewski, Oskar, 2012. "Financial crisis, structure and reform," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 2960-2973.
    10. Mirzaei, Ali & Moore, Tomoe & Liu, Guy, 2013. "Does market structure matter on banks’ profitability and stability? Emerging vs. advanced economies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 2920-2937.
    11. Silva-Buston, Consuelo, 2019. "Systemic risk and competition revisited," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 188-205.
    12. Jordan Kjosevski & Mihail Petkovski, 2017. "Determinants of Bank Profitability in the Republic of Macedonia – a Panel Data Analysis," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 3, pages 41-65.
    13. Beck, Thorsten, 2008. "Bank competition and financial stability : friends or foes ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4656, The World Bank.
    14. Florian Leon, 2015. "What do we know about the role of bank competition in Africa?," Working Papers halshs-01164864, HAL.
    15. Agoraki, Maria-Eleni K. & Delis, Manthos D. & Pasiouras, Fotios, 2011. "Regulations, competition and bank risk-taking in transition countries," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 38-48, January.
    16. Brei, Michael & Jacolin, Luc & Noah, Alphonse, 2020. "Credit risk and bank competition in Sub-Saharan Africa," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    17. Fazelina Sahul Hamid, 2017. "The Effect of Market Structure on Banks’ Profitability and Stability: Evidence from ASEAN-5 Countries," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(4), pages 578-598, October.
    18. Sufian, Fadzlan & Habibullah, Muzafar Shah, 2010. "Does economic freedom fosters banks’ performance? Panel evidence from Malaysia," Journal of Contemporary Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 77-91.
    19. Lev Ratnovski, 2013. "Competition Policy for Modern Banks," IMF Working Papers 2013/126, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Ozili, Peterson K, 2018. "Banking Stability Determinants in Africa," MPRA Paper 101825, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Market Concentration; Financial Crisis; Systemic Crisis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eth:wpswif:10-138. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iwethch.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.