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Selling At The Ultimate Maximum In A Regime-Switching Model

Author

Listed:
  • YUE LIU

    (School of Finance and Economics, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang 212013, P. R. China)

  • NICOLAS PRIVAULT

    (School of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, Nanyang Technological University, 21 Nanyang Link, Singapore 637371, Singapore)

Abstract

This paper deals with optimal prediction in a regime-switching model driven by a continuous-time Markov chain. We extend existing results for geometric Brownian motion by deriving optimal stopping strategies that depend on the current regime state and prove a number of continuity properties relating to optimal value and boundary functions. Our approach replaces the use of closed form expressions, which are not available in our setting, with PDE arguments that also simplify the approach of [du Toit & Peskir (2009) Selling a stock at the ultimate maximum, Annals of Applied Probability 19 (3), 983–1014.] in the classical Brownian case.

Suggested Citation

  • Yue Liu & Nicolas Privault, 2017. "Selling At The Ultimate Maximum In A Regime-Switching Model," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 20(03), pages 1-27, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:ijtafx:v:20:y:2017:i:03:n:s0219024917500182
    DOI: 10.1142/S0219024917500182
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Albert Shiryaev & Zuoquan Xu & Xun Yu Zhou, 2008. "Thou shalt buy and hold," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(8), pages 765-776.
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    3. R. H. Liu & Q. Zhang & G. Yin, 2006. "Option pricing in a regime-switching model using the fast Fourier transform," International Journal of Stochastic Analysis, Hindawi, vol. 2006, pages 1-22, September.
    4. David D. Yao & Qing Zhang & Xun Yu Zhou, 2006. "A Regime-Switching Model for European Options," International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, in: Houmin Yan & George Yin & Qing Zhang (ed.), Stochastic Processes, Optimization, and Control Theory: Applications in Financial Engineering, Queueing Networks, and Manufacturing Systems, chapter 0, pages 281-300, Springer.
    5. Albert Shiryaev & Zuoquan Xu & Xun Yu Zhou, 2008. "Response to comment on 'Thou shalt buy and hold'," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(8), pages 761-762.
    6. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    7. Yue Liu & Nicolas Privault, 2018. "A Recursive Algorithm for Selling at the Ultimate Maximum in Regime-Switching Models," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 369-384, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Liu, Yue & Sun, Huaping & Meng, Bo & Jin, Shunlin & Chen, Bin, 2023. "How to purchase carbon emission right optimally for energy-consuming enterprises? Analysis based on optimal stopping model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    2. Liu, Yue & Sun, Huaping & Zhang, Jijian & Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad, 2020. "Detection of volatility regime-switching for crude oil price modeling and forecasting," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    3. Yue Liu & Aijun Yang & Jijian Zhang & Jingjing Yao, 2020. "An Optimal Stopping Problem of Detecting Entry Points for Trading Modeled by Geometric Brownian Motion," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 55(3), pages 827-843, March.
    4. Yue Liu & Nicolas Privault, 2018. "A Recursive Algorithm for Selling at the Ultimate Maximum in Regime-Switching Models," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 369-384, March.

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