IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/compec/v44y2014i3p339-378.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Some Pitfalls in Smooth Transition Models Estimation: A Monte Carlo Study

Author

Listed:
  • Novella Maugeri

    ()

Abstract

Nonlinear regime switching models are becoming increasingly popular in recent applied literature, as they allow capturing state-dependent behaviors which would be otherwise impossible to model. However, despite their popularity, the specification and estimation of these type of models is computationally complex and it is far from being a univocally solved issue.This paper aims at contributing to this debate. In particular, we use Monte Carlo experiments to assess whether employing the standard trick of ‘concentrating the sum of squares’ by Leybourne et al. (Journal of Time Series Analysis, 19(1): 83–97, 1998 ) in the application of nonlinear least squares to smooth transition models yields estimates with desirable asymptotic properties. Our results confirm that this procedure needs to be used with caution as it may yield biased and inconsistent estimates, especially when faced with small samples. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Novella Maugeri, 2014. "Some Pitfalls in Smooth Transition Models Estimation: A Monte Carlo Study," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 44(3), pages 339-378, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:compec:v:44:y:2014:i:3:p:339-378
    DOI: 10.1007/s10614-013-9395-6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10614-013-9395-6
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tucci, Marco P., 2002. "A note on global optimization in adaptive control, econometrics and macroeconomics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(9-10), pages 1739-1764, August.
    2. Dick van Dijk & Timo Terasvirta & Philip Hans Franses, 2002. "Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models — A Survey Of Recent Developments," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 1-47.
    3. Novella Maugeri, 2010. "Money Illusion and Rational Expectations: New Evidence from Well Known Survey Data," Department of Economics University of Siena 606, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    4. Hwan Seo, Myung, 2011. "Estimation Of Nonlinear Error Correction Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(2), pages 201-234, April.
    5. Benati, Luca & Goodhart, Charles, 2008. "Investigating time-variation in the marginal predictive power of the yield spread," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1236-1272, April.
    6. Kapetanios, George & Shin, Yongcheol & Snell, Andy, 2003. "Testing for a unit root in the nonlinear STAR framework," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 359-379, February.
    7. Bekiros, Stelios D., 2009. "A robust algorithm for parameter estimation in smooth transition autoregressive models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 103(1), pages 36-38, April.
    8. Kapetanios, George, 2000. "Small sample properties of the conditional least squares estimator in SETAR models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 267-276, December.
    9. Lundbergh, Stefan & Terasvirta, Timo & van Dijk, Dick, 2003. "Time-Varying Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(1), pages 104-121, January.
    10. Béreau, Sophie & Villavicencio, Antonia López & Mignon, Valérie, 2010. "Nonlinear adjustment of the real exchange rate towards its equilibrium value: A panel smooth transition error correction modelling," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 404-416, January.
    11. Venetis, Ioannis A. & Paya, Ivan & Peel, David A., 2003. "Re-examination of the predictability of economic activity using the yield spread: a nonlinear approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 187-206.
    12. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    13. Chan, Felix & Theoharakis, Billy, 2011. "Estimating m-regimes STAR-GARCH model using QMLE with parameter transformation," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 81(7), pages 1385-1396.
    14. Tucci, Marco P, 1998. "The Nonconvexities Problem in Adaptive Control Models: A Simple Computational Solution," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 12(3), pages 203-222, December.
    15. de Jong, Robert M., 2001. "Nonlinear estimation using estimated cointegrating relations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 109-122, March.
    16. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Shah, Zahra B., 2011. "An in-sample and out-of-sample empirical investigation of the nonlinearity in house prices of South Africa," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 891-899, May.
    17. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    18. de Jong, Robert M., 2002. "Nonlinear minimization estimators in the presence of cointegrating relations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 241-259, October.
    19. Marianna Brunetti & Costanza Torricelli, 2009. "Economic activity and recession probabilities: information content and predictive power of the term spread in Italy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(18), pages 2309-2322.
    20. Felix Chan & Michael McAleer, 2002. "Maximum likelihood estimation of STAR and STAR-GARCH models: theory and Monte Carlo evidence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(5), pages 509-534.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Thomas Chuffart, 2015. "Selection Criteria in Regime Switching Conditional Volatility Models," Econometrics, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 3(2), pages 1-28, May.
    2. Tolga Omay & Furkan Emirmahmutoğlu, 2017. "The Comparison of Power and Optimization Algorithms on Unit Root Testing with Smooth Transition," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 49(4), pages 623-651, April.
    3. Murat Midilic, 2016. "Estimation Of Star-Garch Models With Iteratively Weighted Least Squares," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 16/918, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    4. Kulaksizoglu, Tamer, 2015. "Unit Roots and Smooth Transitions: A Replication," MPRA Paper 61867, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:compec:v:44:y:2014:i:3:p:339-378. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sonal Shukla) or (Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.