Money Illusion and Rational Expectations: New Evidence from Well Known Survey Data
This paper provides further evidence in favor of less than fully rational expectations by making use two instruments, one quite well known, and the other more novel, namely survey data on inflation expectations and Smooth Transition Error Correction Models (STECMs). We use the so called ‘probabilistic approach’ to derive a quantitative measure of expected inflation from qualitative survey data for France, Italy and the UK. The United States are also included by means of the Michigan Survey of Consumers’ expectations series. First, we perform the standard tests to assess the ‘degree of rationality’ of consumers’ inflation forecasts. Afterwards, we specify a STECM of the forecast error, and we quantify the strategic stickiness in the long-run adjustment process of expectations stemming from money illusion. Our evidence is that consumers’ expectations do not generally conform to the prescriptions of the rational expectations hypothesis. In particular, we find that the adjustment process towards the long-run equilibrium is highly nonlinear and it is asymmetric with respect to the size of the past forecast errors. We interpret these findings as supporting the money illusion hypothesis.
|Date of creation:||Dec 2010|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.deps.unisi.it/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Shah, Zahra B., 2011.
"An in-sample and out-of-sample empirical investigation of the nonlinearity in house prices of South Africa,"
Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 891-899, May.
- Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Zahra Shah, 2010. "An In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Empirical Investigation of the Nonlinearity in House Prices of South Africa," Working Papers 201008, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Béreau, Sophie & Villavicencio, Antonia López & Mignon, Valérie, 2010.
"Nonlinear adjustment of the real exchange rate towards its equilibrium value: A panel smooth transition error correction modelling,"
Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 404-416, January.
- Sophie Béreau & Antonia Lopez Villavicencio & Valérie Mignon, 2008. "Nonlinear Adjustment of the Real Exchange Rate Towards its Equilibrium Value: a Panel Smooth Transition Error Correction Modelling," Working Papers 2008-23, CEPII research center.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:usi:wpaper:606. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Fabrizio Becatti)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.