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Currency Turmoil in an Unbalanced World Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Michel Aglietta

    (University Paris Ouest-Nanterre, CEPII, France Stratégie)

  • Virginie Coudert

    (Banque de France, University of Paris Ouest Nanterre)

Abstract

Like all asset prices, exchange rates are moved by a momentum created by alternating long phases of overvaluation and undervaluation with no stabilization at their equilibrium value. The dollar is particularly prone to these large fluctuations that regularly distort real exchange rates between major currencies. Misalignment in exchange rates is a repeated feature of dollar cycles, as much as unsustainable imbalances in the current accounts.Moreover, the appreciation phase of the dollar that has begun for several months is particularly disturbing for emerging countries that are heavily indebted in dollars. This paper studies the consequences of dollar appreciation on the world economy. The prospect of a new dollar cycle is worrisome since most countries, far from deleveraging after the financial crisis, have massively increased their debt relative to GDP.

Suggested Citation

  • Michel Aglietta & Virginie Coudert, 2015. "Currency Turmoil in an Unbalanced World Economy," Bankers, Markets & Investors, ESKA Publishing, issue 139, pages 46-57, November-.
    • Handle: RePEc:rbq:journl:i:139:p:46-57
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cecchetti, Stephen & Kharroubi, Enisse, 2015. "Why does financial sector growth crowd out real economic growth?," CEPR Discussion Papers 10642, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Michel Aglietta & Virginie Coudert, 2014. "Le dollar et le système monétaire international," Post-Print hal-01411462, HAL.
    3. Lionel Fontagné & Julien Gourdon & Sébastien Jean, 2013. "Transatlantic Trade: Whither Partnership, Which Economic Consequences?," CEPII Policy Brief 2013-01, CEPII research center.
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    5. Béreau, Sophie & Villavicencio, Antonia López & Mignon, Valérie, 2010. "Nonlinear adjustment of the real exchange rate towards its equilibrium value: A panel smooth transition error correction modelling," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 404-416, January.
    6. Michel Aglietta & Etienne Espagne, 2015. "Financing energy and low-carbon investment: public guarantees and the ECB," Working Papers hal-01671394, HAL.
    7. Benjamin Carton & Jérôme Héricourt & Fabien Tripier, 2014. "Can the Euro Area Avoid a “Lost Decade”?," CEPII Policy Brief 2014-02, CEPII research center.
    8. Michel Aglietta & Étienne Espagne, 2015. "Financing energy and low-carbon investment: public guarantees and the ECB," CEPII Policy Brief 2015-06, CEPII research center.
    9. Christophe Destais, 2016. "Central Bank Currency Swaps and the International Monetary System," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(10), pages 2253-2266, October.
    10. Natacha Valla & Jesper Berg & Laurent Clerc & Olivier Garnier & Erik Nielsen, 2015. "A holistic approach to ECB asset purchases, the Investment Plan and CMU," CEPII Policy Brief 2015-07, CEPII research center.
    11. Natacha Valla & Thomas Brand & Sébastien Doisy, 2014. "A New Architecture for Public Investment in Europe," CEPII Policy Brief 2014-04, CEPII research center.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Michel Aglietta & Virginie Coudert, 2016. "Trump and the Dollar in the Refection of History," Working Papers hal-01671414, HAL.
    2. Michel Aglietta & Guo Bai, 2016. "China’s 13th Five-Year Plan. In Pursuit of a “Moderately Prosperous Society”," CEPII Policy Brief 2016-12, CEPII research center.
    3. Etienne Espagne, 2016. "Climate Finance at COP21 and After: Lessons Learnt," CEPII Policy Brief 2016-09, CEPII research center.
    4. Matthieu Crozet & Gianluca Orefice, 2017. "Trade and Labor Market: What Do We Know?," CEPII Policy Brief 2017-15, CEPII research center.
    5. Xavier Chojnicki & Anthony Edo & Lionel Ragot, 2016. "Intra-European Labor Migration in Crisis Times," CEPII Policy Brief 2016-13, CEPII research center.
    6. Sébastien Jean & Ariell Reshef, 2017. "Why Trade, and What Would Be the Consequences of Protectionism?," CEPII Policy Brief 2017-18, CEPII research center.
    7. Anne-Laure Delatte & Sébastien Jean, 2017. "Trade and Macro-Economic Issues for International Co-Ordinational in Tense Times," CEPII Policy Brief 2017-16, CEPII research center.
    8. Cecilia Bellora & Sébastien Jean, 2016. "Granting Market Economy Status to China in the EU: An Economic Impact Assessment," CEPII Policy Brief 2016-11, CEPII research center.
    9. Hillel Rapoport, 2017. "Who is Afraid of the Brain Drain? A Development Economist’s View," CEPII Policy Brief 2017-14, CEPII research center.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dollar Cycle; High Indebtedness; International Liquidity; Exorbitant Privilege;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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